Japan Unveils Multi-Member Electoral Reforms Puzzled? Voters Will

The new system was introduced after years of clamour for reform. It was intended to produce a more transparent, less corrupt political framework.

The old machinery - multi-member constituencies in which electors had just one vote, was a direct encouragement to money politics, where candidates competed on the basis of how much largesse they handed out to their constituents rather than on political differences.

It was also seen as a cornerstone of Japans unwieldy multi-party system.

While one party, the LDP, always dominated, the rest of the votes were spread bewilderingly around smaller opposition parties. The change was supposed to promote the development of a two-party framework.

 

The new arrangement is a hybrid, the product of a traditional Japanese compromise. Voters will cast two simultaneous ballots - one in 300 small single-member seats, where the winner will be decided on the basis of simple plurality (first past the post); the second will be cast in one of 11 giant multi-member constituencies, which will return 200 MPs.

In the first, the elector votes for an individual, usually with a party affiliation. In the second, he chooses simply a party, and seats are distributed using a method which will produce a roughly proportional outcome.

As with most compromises, the new system will probably produce none of the results initially intended. Certainly, little evidence exists that money politics is on the way out.

Candidates are still quietly promising to continue the largesse, and those offering the greatest prizes are as popular as ever. But it is the new systems party political consequences that may be most unexpected and most significant.

The predominance of simple plurality seats should enhance the position of the larger parties, especially those whose support is geographically concentrated.

But it also means that with a multiplicity of fairly competitive parties, some very close results could occur, and a party could easily win with a very small proportion of total votes cast.

Both these factors will heavily favour the LDP. Their traditional strength in rural Japan will ensure a near clean sweep in the countryside. But even in the cities, where there are more seats this time a result of redistribution, the LDP will be the big beneficiary of the new system.

The two main opposition parties, the DP and NFP, are, in many urban areas, likely to garner 50 per cent or more of the vote between them.

But if that vote is split fairly evenly, as seems likely, the LDP could break through in style, winning many seats with not much more than a third of the vote.

Parties with wide, relatively thinly spread popular support will not fare so well. This could hit the LDP especially badly.

Current polls suggest they will pick up about 20 per cent of the vote nationally, but win only 20 or so (7 per cent) of the single-member constituencies.