Assembly election results: What to expect from the three unknowns

BJP has promised an industrial park in Singur

The uncertainty over the flow of remittances from Gulf countries will confront the new Kerala chief minister (CM) from the Congress party. 

 

In the neighbouring Tamil Nadu (TN), industries and businesses across the country are keenly watching how Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK)’s Vijay balances the preceding government’s push for manufacturing — which contributed to the almost 11 per cent to the gross state domestic product (GSDP) in 2025-26 — while also delivering on his party’s progressive manifesto.

 

In West Bengal, the next CM of the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) will have the benefit of running a “double engine” government and could look for support from the Centre. The next CM will need to deliver on the BJP’s welfare promises and its commitment to create jobs by reviving the state’s languishing industry, starting with the promise to set up an industrial park in Singur. In the 2026 Assembly polls, BJP’s Arup Kumar Das defeated his Trinamool rival by over 21,000 votes. The Trinamool had held the seat in successive elections since 2001. 

 

The wheel has turned full circle in the state. In October 2008, industrialist Ratan Tata received a cryptic text message from the then Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, which said "swagatam", or welcome, to set up the Tata Nano plant in Gujarat after the Tata Group chairman announced the exit of Tata Nano project from Singur in West Bengal at a press conference in Kolkata. 

 

In its manifesto for the West Bengal Assembly polls, the BJP said it would develop an industrial park in Singur, construct modern deep sea ports in Tajpur and Kulpi, operationalise Purulia, Malda and Balurghat airports, construct four new cities in North Bengal “to address years of neglect”, and construct folding bridges in Haldia and Nandigram. 

 

Other than several women-centric schemes, the BJP reached out to Bengal’s 1.4 million state government employees and an estimated five million pensioners, promising to clear “all dearness allowance arrears” and implement the recommendations of the 7th pay commission within 45-days of forming the government. 

 

In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) will take up the reins when the southern state is facing an unprecedented concern about one of its major support systems – remittances from the Gulf countries. With the rising West Asia tensions, the future of revenue from around two million Keralites in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is also facing concern. The money of these non-resident Keralites was driving consumption in the state's economy. Experts have forecasted a 20 per cent drop in the state’s remittances if the conflict in West Asia continues. 

 

According to the recent Kerala Migration Survey (KMS), conducted by the Thiruvananthapuram-based Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation (GIFT), along with technical support from the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD), Kerala received Rs 2.16 trillion worth of remittances in 2023, up from Rs 85,092 crore in 2018. 

 

Around 3-3.5 million, or nearly 80 per cent, of Kerala’s expatriates live and work in GCC countries. According to industry experts, if it dries up, the new government may have to ensure policy measures that will create enough jobs in the information technology, global capability centres, and industrial sectors. 

 

In TN, Vijay, according to sources, is likely to take oath as the CM, along with his council of ministers, later this week. His choice of personnel to handle key portfolios, such as finance and industry, will be of interest. The TVK manifesto’s welfare agenda is long, but it has also promised financial support to the state’s micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) with the creation of a Rs 15,000 crore state credit guarantee fund for those facing financial distress, committed to approve business licenses within 21 days, abolition of peak-hour electricity charges for industrial operations and 35 per cent direct capital subsidy (up to Rs 50 lakh per unit) to modernise MSMEs and 100 per cent exemption on electricity tax for five years.