Axis My India exit poll predicts tight NDA win in Bihar elections

Axis My India's exit poll projects a narrow National Democratic Alliance victory in Bihar, with the RJD as the single largest party and the NDA expected to cross the majority mark

In its exit poll released on Wednesday for the Bihar Assembly polls, Axis My India predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could drop to number three in the party-wise break-up, while its ally Janata Dal (United) JD(U) was likely to significantly improve upon its 2020 performance. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), it predicted, could emerge as the single-largest party.

 

Axis My India expected a tight contest between the two principal adversaries, with the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) slightly ahead of the rival Mahagathbandhan (MGB), and more likely to cross the majority mark of 122 to form the government.

 

 

It predicted that the NDA could win between 121-141 seats, while the MGB is likely to win 98-118 seats. It gave 0-2 seats to the Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj. It predicted that only two per cent vote share would separate the NDA from the MGB, with the former likely to secure 43 per cent against the latter’s 41 per cent, and Jan Suraaj likely to get four per cent vote share.  Catch Bihar Election Results 2025 LIVE UPDATES 

In its party-wise break-up, Axis My India predicted that the RJD would be the single-largest party getting between 67-76 seats, followed by the JD(U) at 56-62 seats, BJP bagging 50-56 seats, Congress securing 17-21 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party 3-5 seats, and Left parties 10-14 seats.

 

It also found that while 34 per cent people want to see RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav as the chief minister, 22 per cent want incumbent Nitish Kumar (JD-U) to remain at the helm.

 

The exit poll also gave a gender-wise break-up of vote share. It predicted that while the NDA would get 41 per cent male and 45 per cent female votes, the Mahagathbandhan would get 42 per cent male and 40 per cent female votes.

 

Today’s Chanakya, which released its exit poll on Wednesday, predicted 160 seats, with an error margin of 12 seats, for the NDA, 77 seats, with a similar margin for the MGB, and six seats for the rest.

 

Almost all exit polls which released their predictions on Tuesday after the conclusion of the voting for the second phase, said the NDA would secure a comfortable win in the Bihar Assembly polls.

 

Exit poll projections are made by election survey agencies based on interviews of voters as they come out after casting their votes. These may vary widely from the actual results.

 

The NDA comprises the BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Rashtriya Lok Morcha. The MGB, or INDIA bloc, comprises the RJD, Congress, the Left parties and VIP.

 

The Bihar polls were conducted in two phases on November 6 and 11, and the results will be announced on November 14. In the 2020 Assembly polls, the RJD was the single-largest party with 75 seats, BJP won 74, JDU 43, Congress 19, CPI (ML)L 12, CPI and CPM 2 each, AIMIM 5, HAM 4 and LJP (RV) 1. 

Exit pollster	NDA	MGB	Others
Axis My India	121-141	98-118	1-7
Today’s Chanakya	160 (+/- 12)	77 (+/- 12)	6 (+/- 3)