Exit polls predict tight finish in WB; mixed signals from TN outcome

Exit polls released on Wedensday evening agreed in their prediction that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to secure a historic win in Assam, and that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to unseat the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala. However, the predictions of different exit polls varied on the results of the Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Pollsters were unanimous in forecasting a return to power for the All Indian NR Congress (AINRC)-led NDA government in Puducherry.

 

Most exit polls have had a chequered history and have been off the mark on several occasions in the past.

 

 

In its exit poll for Tamil Nadu, Axis My India predicted that actor turned politician Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, which is an electoral debutant, could emerge as the single largest party, pushing the ruling Dravida Munnnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance to the number two spot. But most other exit polls predicted that the DMK-led alliance would be able to secure the majority mark in the state. They saw TVK trailing at the number three spot in the seats tally with the AIADMK-led alliance at number two.

 

The current round of Assembly polls in four states -- Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal -- and the Union Territory of Puducherry concluded on Wednesday evening. The final phase of polling in West Bengal saw a historic voter turnout of over 90 per cent on Wednesday. In the first phase, West Bengal saw a record 91.78 per cent voter turnout.

 

Axis My India is expected to release exit polls for the Eastern state on Thursday. However, at least five pollsters predicted an edge for the BJP over the ruling Trinamool Congress, while three predicted a Trinmool win in the state.

 

In West Bengal, the People's Pulse exit poll predicted that the TMC would get 177-187 seats, BJP 95-110, Left Front 0-1 and the Congress 1-3. Matrize predicted a BJP edge in the state, and said it is likely to get 146-161 seats. It said the TMC would get 125-140 seats. P-Marq predicted 150-175 for the BJP and 118-138 to the TMC. West Bengal has a total of 294 seats with the majority mark being 148.

 

Axis My India predicted a sweep for the BJP in Assam, forecasting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners. In Kerala, Axis My India forecast that the UDF would get 78-90 seats, LDF 49-62 and NDA 0-3.

 

In Tamil Nadu, the People's Pulse predicted 125-145 for the DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for AIADMK-BJP and 18-24 for TVK. Matrize forecast that the DMK-Congress would get 122-132, NDA 87-100 and TVK 10-12. Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 seats with the magic mark being 118.

 

Counting of votes for all the five assemblies -- West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam -- will take place on May 4.

 

Polls were conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. West Bengal saw two-phase polling on April 23 and 29.

 

On April 9, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to polls. Assam and Puducherry surpassed their highest-ever poll participation by recording a voter turnout of 85.38 per cent and 89.83 per cent respectively.

 

Tamil Nadu went to polls on April 23, along with the first phase of polls in West Bengal. Tamil Nadu recorded its highest-ever voter turnout at 84.69 per cent since independence.