RBI MPC Meet: Inflation for FY26 pegged at 2.1%, real GDP growth at 7.4%

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the Indian economy remains on a steady growth path, while announcing the outcome of the February Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) outcome.

 

Malhotra said that several measures announced in the Union Budget, along with the India-EU trade deal, are expected to provide a boost to economic momentum. He noted that these initiatives, coupled with stronger export performance, will support overall growth and help further strengthen the economy.

 

He said that the real gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at 7.4 per cent in FY26 vs the previous year. According to the February meeting, growth estimates are:

 

• Q1 FY27: 6.9 per cent
• Q2 FY27: 7 per cent

 

Malhotra said that the headline inflation stayed benign despite a recent uptick, with underlying pressures remaining muted. Inflation estimates for FY26 were increased to 2.1 per cent from 2 per cent.

 

Inflation estimates:

• Q4 FY26: 3.2 per cent
• Q1 FY27: 4 per cent
• Q2 FY27: 4.2 per cent

 

Monetary policy will be guided by new inflation data based on the revised series, he said. 

 

The growth and inflation projection for Q3, Q4 and the full year have been deferred till the April MPC.