Immigration crackdown backfires? US-born workers lose jobs amid ICE arrests

New research finds stricter immigration enforcement may reduce employment and hiring across sectors instead of creating more jobs for US-born workers

US President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is affecting some US-born workers in sectors such as construction, according to a paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

 

Areas that saw sharp increases in arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported a fall in employment among US-born male workers, particularly those with a high school degree or less, the study found. Researchers also found no evidence that employers raised wages to attract US-born workers into these roles.

 

The findings challenge the idea that stricter immigration enforcement would open up more jobs for Americans. Instead, the study suggests that foreign-born and US-born workers often work in complementary roles rather than competing directly.

   

“We show no evidence of positive effects of the labour market outcomes of US-born workers in immigrant-heavy industries,” wrote Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East, researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder. “If anything these US-born workers are harmed as a result.”

 

Some American workers see losses

 

The report found that certain groups of US-born workers were more affected than others:

 

• Men with a high school education or less saw a drop in employment

• Workers in sectors with high immigrant participation were more exposed to the impact

• Job losses were linked to reduced overall business activity rather than job replacement

 

The study explains that when undocumented workers reduce their participation, businesses scale back operations. This lowers demand for all workers instead of shifting jobs to US-born employees.

 

There was also no evidence that firms increased wages to fill gaps. Instead of offering higher pay, many employers appear to have reduced hiring. 

 

Chilling effect spreads across communities

 

The research points to wider behavioural changes among undocumented immigrants following enforcement activity. Many are avoiding work, keeping children home from school, and limiting public outings.

 

The authors said this “chilling effect” builds gradually as information about enforcement spreads within communities.

 

Male workers identified as “likely undocumented immigrants” saw a 5 per cent drop in employment and hours worked. These workers are both more likely to be targeted in arrests and more concentrated in sectors such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing.

 

Data from the University of California Berkeley Deportation Data Project shows around 320,000 ICE arrests were recorded across the US last year, nearly three times the number reported in 2024. 

 

What the findings suggest

 

The study indicates that stricter immigration enforcement may reduce overall employment in key industries rather than shifting opportunities to US-born workers.

 

By linking enforcement activity with worker-level outcomes, the report adds to the debate around immigration policy and its economic effects, showing that the impact extends beyond immigrant communities into the broader labour market.