US student visa refusals rise: India among worst-hit at 61%, says report

New report shows rising US visa denials, with India and Global South facing far higher rejection rates than Europe and North America

US student visa applicants from the Global South, including India, are seeing rejection rates far higher than those from Europe or North America, according to a new report that points to a widening regional divide in access to American education.

 

The pattern, described as “structurally concentrated in specific regions”, comes from a report by Shorelight titled Beyond the Interview: A Decade of Student Visa Denials and What Comes Next. The study is based on data obtained through a public information request to the US Department of State and was developed in partnership with the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration.

   

Published on April 6, 2026, the report shows that visa refusals have risen over time and are increasingly uneven across regions, raising questions about whether access to US education is being shaped more by geography than by merit.

 

Shorelight is an education partner that helps international students apply to and enrol in foreign institutions.

 

What the data shows for Indian students

 

2023: 36% refusal rate

2024: 53% refusal rate

2025: 61% refusal rate

 

That marks a rise of 25 percentage points between 2023 and 2025.

 

“With student visa refusals in India climbing up to 60%, India is now part of the ‘high-refusal tier’ seen across the Global South,” the report noted.

 

How other countries compare

 

India: 61%

Pakistan: 71%

Bangladesh: 73%

Nepal: 81%

Afghanistan: 81%

 

Across Asia, refusal rates have moved as follows:

 

2015: 30%

2020 peak: 40%

2025: 41%

 

At a global level:

 

2024: 31%

2025: 35% (highest in 10 years)

 

Fewer visas have also translated into financial pressure on universities:

 

$1.7 billion initial estimate of tuition loss

Revised estimate: about $3 billion annually

Visa issuance fell by 36% in one period, based on State Department data 

US student visa refusal

 

A decade of rising refusals

 

The report tracks a steady increase rather than a sudden jump. F-1 visa refusal rates rose from around 23% in 2015 to nearly 35% in 2025. Refusals in 2025 were about 50% higher than in 2015, marking one of the sharpest shifts in recent years.

 

Within this broader rise, regional differences stand out. Applicants from Asia faced refusal rates of about 41%, nearly double those seen in North America, South America, and Oceania.

 

European applicants continued to record the lowest refusal rates at roughly 9%, a figure that has remained largely stable over the past decade.

 

For India, the increase has been steeper. Rejection rates rose from 50% to 63%, placing Indian students — the largest group of international students in the US — among those most affected.

 

The pattern extends across South Asia. Nepal saw refusal rates rise from 59% to 81% within a year, while Bangladesh and Pakistan recorded rates of 73% and 71%, pointing to a broader regional trend. 

 

Africa and Asia see the sharpest impact

 

The shift is even more pronounced in Africa, where refusal rates have climbed from around 43% in 2015 to nearly 64% in recent years.

 

The data suggests that while refusal rates are rising globally, the increase is not evenly shared. Students from Asia and Africa face a much higher likelihood of rejection compared to those in Europe, where more than nine in ten applicants continue to receive approval.

 

Impact on Indian student numbers

 

Despite the tightening visa environment, the United States remains a key destination for Indian students, according to government data presented in Parliament.

 

Indian students account for nearly 30% of all foreign enrolments in the US, forming a large share of graduate programmes and research labs.

 

The number of Indian students fell from 378,787 in February 2025 to 352,644 in February 2026.

 

Data from the Institute of International Education shows Indian student enrolment in US graduate programmes declined by 9.5% in 2024–25.

 

Parliamentary data also indicates that the number of Indian students going to the US has dropped by around 28% in the past year.

 

In some segments, overall enrolment trends show a decline of nearly 45%, reflecting a mix of visa challenges and policy uncertainty.

 

Pressure on universities and research pipelines

 

The effects go beyond student mobility. Indian students form a substantial share of graduate-level STEM programmes, contributing to research output, workforce pipelines, and long-term economic activity.

 

Data from multiple sources, including the IIE Open Doors report and analyses cited by BBC, shows that Indian students account for over 70% of enrolments in some advanced STEM programmes.

 

They also represent nearly half of STEM-OPT participants and close to 75% of H-1B visa recipients, particularly in the technology sector.