H-1B visa lottery FY2027: Wage rule, $100K fee lift selection rates to 60%

Selection rates hit 50-60 per cent in FY2027 H-1B lottery as wage-based system and $100,000 fee reduce applicant pool

The first H-1B lottery (FY 2027) held under the second Donald Trump administration this year saw selection rates jump to “unseen levels”, Bloomberg Law reported on Wednesday, citing data from immigration firms. This was the first lottery conducted under a wage-based system and after the administration imposed a $100,000 fee for H-1B applications.

 

The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has not released official data on how many registrations were received or selected. However, law firms told Bloomberg Law they recorded higher success rates.

 

The visa programme, which allows US employers to hire specialty workers from abroad, previously relied on a random lottery due to applications exceeding the annual cap of 85,000. The administration has now revised the process to favour higher-paid, more qualified candidates. Some legal firms reported selection rates of 50–60 per cent this year, compared to roughly one in three in earlier cycles.

   

At BAL Immigration, selection rates exceeded 60 per cent for some clients, Bloomberg Law reported.

 

Other firms, including Ogletree Deakins, Erickson Immigration Group, and service provider Boundless Immigration, also reported outcomes well above previous years.

 

As the tech sector increases investment in artificial intelligence, companies are hiring fewer workers overall and focusing more on senior roles, Bloomberg Law quoted Xiao Wang, CEO at Boundless Immigration. He added that many firms took a “wait and see” approach to sponsoring foreign workers after recent policy changes, choosing not to enter this year’s lottery.

 

For Boundless clients who did participate, selection rates were the highest seen in a decade, particularly in the top wage brackets. “That offers a more clear strategy to winning the H-1B lottery and keeping valuable foreign workers at companies,” Wang said.

 

Erickson Immigration Group’s largest clients recorded selection rates ranging from 44 per cent to 71 per cent. For individuals with a master’s degree in the highest wage level, the selection rate exceeded three out of four, according to the firm.

 

Immigration firms told Bloomberg that the higher selection rates this year were largely due to a smaller applicant pool following the introduction of the $100,000 fee.

 

What this means for H-1B applicants

 

The Trump administration has tightened checks on immigration, employment, and visa fraud. Several Republican leaders have also called for ending the H-1B programme, arguing that American jobs should not go to foreign workers, particularly from India and China.

 

After the fee was introduced, universities and hospitals scaled back international hiring as they could not absorb the added cost. Many technology firms also reduced overseas hiring, even though they accounted for about four in 10 new H-1B employees in recent years.

 

Companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence have also cut back on foreign hiring. Many employers are still waiting for clarity on whether courts will intervene on the visa fee.

 

For highly skilled workers, the new system improves selection chances as it favours higher salaries and experience. For US workers, it reduces competition for entry-level roles.

 

Looming uncertainty over visa fee

 

Whether application numbers recover next year may depend on court rulings and market conditions. Multiple legal challenges have been filed against the $100,000 H-1B fee, with cases pending before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, the Northern District of California, and the District of Massachusetts.

 

Even if the fee is withdrawn, proposed regulations from the US Labor Department could raise required wages for H-1B workers by tens of thousands of dollars, which may lead employers to look for alternatives.

 

"Any sharp increase in prevailing wage thresholds will fundamentally change the accessibility of US work visas for Indian professionals. For employers, especially in sectors like technology, consulting and engineering where a large proportion of H-1B hiring is concentrated, higher wage floors directly raise the cost of hiring foreign talent. This could lead to more selective hiring, fewer entry- to mid-level approvals, and a stronger preference for candidates with niche or high-demand skill sets," Varun Singh, Managing Director at XIPHIAS Immigration told Business Standard.

 

Meanwhile, Connor O’Brien, a fellow at the Institute for Progress, last month shared early figures on X suggesting the policy may have reduced overall filings.

 

“85 people have paid the $100,000 H-1B fee so far, totalling $8.5 million in revenue. But fee revenue from H-1B apps abroad is down $28 million,” O’Brien wrote.