How prolonged heat, erratic rains are making eggs and chicken costlier

A prolonged heatwave, delayed monsoon, expensive poultry feed have squeezed production across farms, pushing egg and chicken prices higher, raising concerns over how long the supply crunch could last

Eggs and chicken have become more expensive across many parts of the country over the past few weeks, adding to household grocery bills and raising costs for restaurants, caterers and other food businesses. Egg prices have surged to record highs in some markets while chicken has also become dearer as supplies tightened. 

The spike is not just the usual seasonal fluctuation. A prolonged heatwave, followed by delayed and uneven monsoon rains, has disrupted poultry farms in several states. Higher bird mortality, lower egg production and rising spending on cooling, water and medicines have squeezed supplies, while costlier feed has added to farmers' woes.

   

With weather conditions still far from stable and production taking time to recover, how long will consumers have to pay more for one of India's cheapest and most widely consumed sources of protein?

Prices climb across key markets

In Pune, wholesale egg prices recently touched ₹760 per 100 eggs, as on July 22, the highest level recorded in the market, pushing retail prices to ₹110-120 per dozen in several neighbourhoods, according to the daily prices published under the National Egg Coordination Committee (NECC) benchmark. Retail prices of eggs in the city had risen to Rs 96-110 per dozen in January at a time when the wholesale rate was 710 per 100 pieces.

 

NECC also shows wholesale prices hovering around ₹7.5 per egg in major producing and consuming centres such as Mumbai and Chennai, higher than levels seen on the same date last month (₹7.1 per egg).

 

Chicken prices have also increased across wholesale and retail markets. While prices vary across cities, industry insiders say supplies have tightened because farms have taken longer to bring birds to market after weeks of extreme heat.

 

It is important to distinguish between different price points in the poultry value chain. Farmgate prices are what poultry farmers receive when they sell eggs or live birds. Wholesale prices are the rates at which traders purchase and distribute them to retailers. Retail prices include transport, storage, handling and retailer margins before the products reach consumers.

Heat hit production before the monsoon arrived

Industry executives say the biggest trigger behind the current price rise has been prolonged heat stress, which affected both layer farms producing eggs and broiler farms raising chickens.

 

"With our own experience and interaction with farmers, there has been a decline of around 5-7 per cent in egg production because of the prolonged heat," Vinay Kumar, executive director of the Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers Association (CLFMA of India), told Business Standard. Chick mortality, he added, increased by 7-10 per cent in many farms during the hottest period, particularly in northern states.

 

Infographic created using ChatGPT

 

According to Kumar, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, parts of Madhya Pradesh and the drier regions of Maharashtra were among the worst affected because they experienced sustained high temperatures for longer periods.

 

He explained that heat stress affects poultry in several ways. Birds consume less feed when temperatures rise as they drink more water to cool down the body heat, leading to lower productivity. Layer hens lay fewer eggs, and the eggs are often smaller, with weaker shells because heat interferes with calcium metabolism. Broiler chickens gain weight more slowly, meaning farmers have to keep them for longer before they reach market weight. Higher mortality among young chicks further reduces the number of birds available for sale.

 

Infographic created using ChatGPT

 

The industry has also had to spend more on keeping birds alive. Poultry sheds require continuous ventilation through fans, foggers and cooling systems. Water consumption rises sharply during hot weather, and farmers often need additional medicines and veterinary care to prevent disease outbreaks triggered by stress. These additional costs eventually filter through the supply chain, contributing to higher prices for consumers.

 

Ricky Thaper, joint secretary of the Poultry Federation of India, told Business Standard that poultry feed accounts for 65-70 per cent of the cost of producing eggs and chicken, leaving farmers particularly vulnerable when weather-related losses occur alongside higher input costs. The industry produces around 149 billion eggs annually, making India the world's second-largest egg producer, while annual chicken production is estimated at 11 million tonnes, according to the federation.

 

Despite the recent disruption, Thaper says the long-term outlook for the sector remains positive because India's per capita consumption of eggs and chicken is still well below that of many developed countries. Egg consumption stands at around 106 eggs per person annually, while chicken consumption is approximately 7.4 kg per person, leaving significant room for future growth.

 

For now, however, he said, producers are focused less on expansion and more on managing a difficult production cycle.

Delayed monsoon prolonged the stress

The weather offered little respite during the early weeks of the southwest monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had warned at the beginning of July that much of the country was likely to experience below-normal rainfall alongside higher-than-normal temperatures, delaying relief from the intense summer heat. Some poultry-producing regions continued to experience high temperatures well into the monsoon season, prolonging heat stress on birds.

 

"Reduction in temperature is the biggest factor that can improve production," Kumar said. "When temperatures start dipping during the night and do not rise excessively during the day, egg production improves, shell quality becomes better, and mortality comes down."

 

Shashi Kant Singh, partner, agriculture, food and agribusiness at PwC India, said the current situation reflects a broader structural challenge facing Indian agriculture. According to him, the recent disruption is not an isolated weather event but a sign of increasing climate-related risks across agricultural supply chains. As climate volatility becomes more frequent, businesses will need to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, better forecasting systems and diversified sourcing strategies to reduce future disruptions.

Feed costs have added another layer of pressure

Although weather has been the primary trigger for the recent price surge, rising feed costs have further squeezed poultry farmers' margins.

 

Feed accounts for nearly two-thirds of the cost of producing eggs and chicken. Maize typically contributes around 55-60 per cent of poultry feed formulations, while soybean meal is the principal source of protein. Any increase in the prices of these commodities quickly translates into higher production costs.

 

According to the Poultry Federation of India, soybean prices have remained well above the minimum support price in recent months, while soybean meal has been trading at around ₹62,000-65,000 per tonne. The federation estimates that the country is currently facing a shortage of around 1.5 million tonnes of soybean meal before the arrival of the new crop later this year.

 

Thaper said the poultry industry is becoming increasingly concerned about the long-term availability of feed ingredients as demand from the livestock sector continues to grow faster than domestic production of maize and soybeans.

 

"The poultry industry is growing at around 7-8 per cent annually, while agricultural growth is much lower. Ensuring adequate supplies of maize and soybean meal will be one of the biggest challenges for the industry," he said.

 

The federation has urged the Centre to consider allowing limited imports of genetically modified soybean meal during the lean season before the new domestic crop arrives. Industry bodies have also suggested allowing imports of non-GM sorghum as a partial substitute for maize in poultry feed.

 

When asked about the feed availability being affected by maize diversion towards ethanol production, Kumar said that although it is unlikely to create a major shortage immediately, this could become a concern over the longer term as both ethanol blending and poultry production continue to expand.

Will prices ease soon?

Consumers hoping for a quick decline in egg and chicken prices may have to wait.

 

Industry executives say prices are likely to remain elevated until temperatures moderate consistently, bird mortality falls and production returns to normal. Even then, recovery will not be immediate.

 

Layer birds require several months before they begin laying eggs, while broiler chickens also need several weeks to reach market weight. Farmers cannot rapidly increase production simply because market prices have improved.

 

The Shravan period could provide some temporary relief. Consumption of poultry products traditionally moderates in several parts of the country during the festival season, easing demand. However, whether that translates into lower prices will depend largely on the pace of supply recovery.

 

Munish Sharma, chief operating officer of Compass Group India, which provides food services across corporate workplaces and institutions, said seasonal demand may help prices soften modestly, but supply conditions will remain the decisive factor. He added that the company has not seen any significant decline in consumer demand for egg- and chicken-based dishes despite the rise in procurement costs.

 

Egg and chicken prices may soften as the weather improves and seasonal demand moderates, but the recovery is unlikely to be immediate. For now, the supply squeeze shows how climate shocks and rising input costs can quickly feed into household food bills.