FMCG sector likely to see 5% volume growth in 2026: Worldpanel by Numerator

Worldpanel by Numerator said FMCG volume growth could approach 5 per cent in 2026 if crude prices stabilise and monsoon conditions remain supportive

Volume growth for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies is expected to edge closer to 5 per cent in calendar year 2026 if energy prices stabilise near baseline assumptions ($80–85 per barrel) and monsoon outcomes do not deteriorate further, according to market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar) in its latest March 2026 FMCG Pulse.

 

“Growth remains uneven but broad-based, with value growth still ahead of volume, though the gap would narrow gradually,” the report said.

 

The research firm also noted that if elevated crude prices persist, FMCG volume growth is likely to remain range-bound at 4–4.5 per cent as it expects select pricing actions to return, frequency recovery to slow further, and planned shopping behaviour to become more entrenched.

   

“2026 is shaping up to be the year of disciplined growth, not exuberant expansion,” the report said, adding, “We continue to hope that the macro headwinds turn favourable and FMCG household consumption can hit that 5 per cent growth, primarily led by household care and personal care.”

 

In the January-March quarter, value growth stood at 13.1 per cent and volume growth accelerated to 5.4 per cent.

 

Urban demand stood at 6.4 per cent in the March quarter, sequentially higher than 4.8 per cent in the December quarter, while rural demand continued to remain above 4 per cent for the second quarter in a row.

 

“FMCG continued to post a healthy topline growth over FY26, with value growth comfortably ahead of volume growth. Value growth at 13.3 per cent remains robust, while volume growth at 4.5 per cent signals a steady, but measured, recovery in physical consumption,” the research firm noted.

 

The report also tempered its volume growth forecast for the sector to 3–4 per cent if higher energy costs coincide with food inflation arising from weather-related stress.

 

It expects the personal care segment to likely grow at around 3–5 per cent in volumes and household care to grow at 4–5 per cent as the firm sees both washing liquids and fabric conditioners witnessing strong household expansion, while floor cleaners and toilet cleaners continue long-term growth despite minor hiccups.

 

Foods could see growth of 3–4 per cent in 2026, the firm noted, adding that staples will provide volume growth, but the upside remains limited. Impulse food categories are likely to face reduced frequency rather than reduced relevance, it said. It also highlighted that intense summers and lower rainfall could provide another year of growth for bottled soft drinks.  

View on volumes 

• FMCG volume growth may remain rangebound at 4-4.5% in 2026
• Food products could see 3-4% growth 
• 3-5% growth likely in personal care
• Household care projected to expand by 4-5%