Hindustan Copper soars 43% in Sept; here are 2 key reasons behind rally

Spike in copper prices, extension of Rakha mining lease deed by another 20 years seems to be the key reasons behind the sharp rally in Hindustan Copper stock.

 

Nifty Metal index movement

 

The Nifty Metal index hit an over 11-month high at 10,174.75 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in Thursday’s intra-day trade backed by a strong rally in shares of Hindustan Copper, Vedanta, Hindalco and Hindustan Zinc. The index was trading at its highest level since October 7, 2024.

 

At 10:26 AM; Nifty Metal index, the top gainer among sectoral indices, was up 1 per cent, as compared to 0.06 per cent decline in the Nifty 50. Thus far in the month of September 2025, the metal index has rallied 11 per cent, as against 2.5 per cent rise in the benchmark index. The Nifty Metal index is now seen inching towards an all-time high of 10,322.05 touched on October 3, 2024.

 

What's driving Hindustan Copper stock?

 

Among individual stocks, Hindustan Copper share has rallied 6 per cent to ₹329.99 on the NSE in intra-day trade amid heavy volumes. Thus far in the month of September, the stock has zoomed 43 per cent, and now quotes close to its 52-week high of ₹353 touched on October 1, 2024, NSE data shows.

 

In the past four trading days, Hindustan Copper rallied 16 per cent after the company announced that Rakha mining lease deed was executed between the company and District Commissioner (DC), Jamshedpur on September 19, 2025 for an extended period of 20 years.

 

Meanwhile, copper prices jumped Wednesday after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia.

 

According to a Reuters report, Goldman Sachs lowered on Thursday its global copper mine supply forecast for 2025 and 2026 following a disruption at Indonesia’s Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine.

 

Goldman Sachs sees upside risks to its December 2025 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price forecast of $9,700 a ton, suggesting prices could settle in the $10,200-$10,500 range.  Meanwhile, copper demand is expected to grow in tandem with growth in the Indian economy. The growing demand from the power sector in view of the Government laying thrust on renewable energy and increasing demand from the households for consumer durables will increase the demand for copper in India. Manufacturers of hybrid and electric vehicles (EV) will also augment the consumption of copper as EVs use four times more copper than traditional internal combustion engines, Hindustan Copper said. 

How have other metal stocks fared?

 

Among other metal stocks, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), Tata Steel and JSW Steel rallied between 9 per cent and 12 per cent in the past one month.

 

Going forward, for ferrous players, higher volumes from the ramp up of new capacities and lower coking coal costs ($5- 10/tonne) are expected to sustain EBITDA/ton, despite a partial correction in metal prices (down more than ₹2,000/tonne QoQ), according to ICICI Securities.

 

On non-ferrous space, despite aluminium prices declining by ~7 per cent QoQ in June 2025 quarter, Hindalco and Vedanta maintained their operating performance, supported by higher premiums from value-added product sales and lower input costs.  Looking ahead, profitability is expected to improve gradually, driven by an increased focus on expanding the VAP portfolio through new capacity additions, greater backward integration, and robust domestic demand, particularly from sunrise sectors such as EVs & renewable, the brokerage firm said in its report.

 

Non-ferrous players are expected to witness margin expansion in Q2 with LME prices witnessing an uptrend compared to Q1. Analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities anticipate a jump in H2 spreads driven by a) USD 20/tn rebound in China domestic HRC prices in Q2 compared to Q1, b) Indian government plugging loopholes in safeguard duty, c) increased visibility on import duty from 200 days to 3 years, and d) H2 being a seasonally strong period consumption-wise.