Markets Today: Feb CPI, Jan IIP; Trump tariffs; FIIs; Super Iron, PDP IPOs

Stock Markets Today, March 12, 2025: India's retail inflation data (CPI inflation) for February and industrial production figure for January, coupled with uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, and increased selling activity by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), may influence the benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty50, today.

 

As of 6:50 AM, GIFT Nifty Futures were down 17 points at 22,547, indicating a flat to negative start to the day. 

 

In the previous session, the Sensex ended 0.02 per cent, or 12.85 points, lower at 74,102.32, while the Nifty50 gained 0.16 per cent, or 37.60 points, to 22,497.90.

 

 

Domestic cues

 

The CPI data will be released today post market hours. India's February retail inflation is expected to have fallen closer to the 4 per cent target for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), driven by lower food prices, possibly paving the way for a repo rate cut in April. January inflation was 4.31 per cent. 

 

The market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has halved the timeline for rights issuances to 23 days, effective April 7, to help firms raise capital faster from existing shareholders.

 

Apart from that, the ongoing market selloff has led to a major valuation correction, with the number of stocks trading at a P/E of under 20x rising 60 per cent. As of now, 355 stocks in the BSE AllCap universe have a P/E below 20x, up from 214 in September.

 

Despite global market volatility, including concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, Morgan Stanley expects the Sensex to reach 105,000 by December 2025, a 41 per cent rise from current levels.

 

Moreover, the Small- and midcap equity mutual funds remain popular among retail investors, with systematic investment plans (SIPs) now accounting for over 50 per cent of smallcap AUMs as of March 2024, up from 43 per cent in 2019.

 

Life-insurance companies saw an 11.6 per cent Y-o-Y drop in new business premiums in February, mainly due to a 22 per cent drop in LIC's premiums. The total NBP for life insurers was Rs 29,985.5 crore, down from Rs 33,913.18 crore last year.

 

Also, the new Income-tax Bill, 2025, aims to simplify tax compliance but will not have an immediate impact on revenue collection, according to Finance Minister Pankaj Chaudhary.

 

Also Read: Centre finalising export schemes to shield exporters from US tariffs

 

Meanwhile, the Union Minister Piyush Goyal may visit Washington later this month to discuss tariff reductions with the US, aiming to protect India from reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2.

 

Global cues

 

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Wednesday, diverging from Wall Street, which fluctuated amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and recession concerns in the US, the world’s largest economy.

 

The White House confirmed that 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum would take effect on Canada and other countries starting Wednesday. However, it also clarified that Trump no longer intends to increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50 per cent. The reversal came six hours after Trump revealed plans to double import duties on Canadian metals in response to Ontario's 25 per cent tax on electricity exports to the US 

 

Nikkei was flat with a negative bias, while the broader Topix index gained 0.69 per cent. Kospi was up 1.18 per cent, while ASX 200 dropped 1.6 per cent.  ALSO READ: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq decline after Trump announces fresh tariffs on Canada

 

In the US, stocks declined overnight due to uncertainty over Trump’s fluctuating tariff proposals. The uncertainty pushed the market close to a correction, defined as a 10 per cent drop from its peak. 

The S&P 500 closed 0.76 per cent lower, the Dow Jones dropped 1.14 per cent, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18 per cent. Investors now await US Feb CPI and Core CPI data, which is expected to be announced later in the day.

 

Also Read: Tech's $750 bn meltdown: Apple, Tesla, Meta face record market bloodbath

 

Additionally, the Trump administration lifted its suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine, and Kyiv signaled that it was open to a 30-day ceasefire in the war with Russia, pending Moscow's agreement, American and Ukrainian officials said Tuesday following talks in Saudi Arabia.

   

Other triggers

 

FII, DII

 

FIIs increased their intensity of selling yet again as they net sold shares worth Rs 2,823.76 crore, while DIIs net bought shares worth Rs 2,001.79 crore, on March 11.

 

IPO market

 

Super Iron IPO (SME) will enter Day 2 of its subscription, while PDP Shipping IPO (SME) will move to Day 3.

 

Commodity market 

 

Gold prices rose 1 per cent on Tuesday, boosted by a weaker dollar and concerns over an economic slowdown from tariff wars. Spot gold gained 0.72 per cent to $2,913.79, while US gold futures rose 0.7 per cent to $2,920.90.

 

Also Read: Silver outlook: After steep runup over the past year, buy on dips

 

Oil prices edged higher, supported by a weaker dollar, though worries about a US economic slowdown and tariffs capped gains. Brent crude rose 28 cents to $69.56 a barrel, while US WTI crude gained 22 cents to $66.25.

 

Here's how analysts are assessing today's (March 12) trading session:

 

Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities

 

On the higher side, it could retest the levels of 22,600-22,650/74500-74700. Conversely, if it falls below 22,300/73700, the sentiment could change. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions.

 

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP of technical and derivatives research at Asit C Mehta

 

22,720 will act as an immediate hurdle for Nifty, followed by the previous breakdown point of 22,800. On the downside, 22,300 will serve as a key support level in the short term. Until the index sustains below the 22,800 level, traders are advised to buy near support and book profits around the resistance zone mentioned above.