MCX rallies 18% in 3 days post Q3 results; brokerages see more upside

MCX stock has jumped 23 per cent post its 1:5 stock split earlier this month; and zoomed as much 207 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹882 touched on March 11, 2025.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) share price today

 

Share price of Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) hit a new high at ₹2,704, surging 4 per cent on the BSE in Thursday’s intra-day trade, extending its past two days' up move, in an otherwise weak market. 

 

Since January 2, 2026, MCX’s market price has jumped 23 per cent after the stock turned ex-date for 1:5 stock split.

 

In the past three trading days, the stock price of the commodity exchange and data platform company has soared 18 per cent. It has zoomed 207 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹882 touched on March 11, 2025.

 

 

At 11:22 AM; MCX stock was up 3 per cent at ₹2,670.95, as compared to 0.24 per cent decline in the BSE Sensex.  FOLLOW LATEST STOCK MARKET UPDATES TODAY LIVE

MCX overview, Q3 results

 

MCX is the leader in commodity derivatives exchanges in India with 98 per cent market share in terms of commodity futures turnover. It has 100 per cent market share in precious metals, base metals and energy. The company's presence in various commodities offers healthy diversification with focus on option volume.

 

For the October to December 2025 quarter (Q3FY26), MCX reported a strong set of results, boosted by volatility and surge in gold and silver prices.  MCX’s consolidated revenue from operations jumped to ₹666 crore, marking a robust 121 per cent increase compared with the same quarter last year. Ebitda surged 144 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to ₹527 crore, while margins expanded to 74.4 per cent, aided by strong operating leverage. Profit after tax (PAT) rose 151 per cent to ₹401 crore during the quarter. The sharp improvement was supported by a significant rise in trading activity, with average daily turnover (ADT) in futures and options climbing to ₹7.5 trillion during the quarter.

 

Global uncertainties on the tariff side, persistent geopolitical tensions, rising trust in hard commodities across countries, as well as rising speculative interest is likely to keep this volatile commodity trend to continue of which MCX shall be key beneficiary, according to analysts.  ALSO READ | Manorama Industries soars over 8% after lifting revenue guidance for FY26

Brokerages view on MCX

 

The market regulator the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey recently signaled that the regulator is working with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) to allow banks, insurance companies, and pension funds to trade in the commodity derivatives market. In addition, the regulator is evaluating a proposal to permit foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to participate in non-cash settled, nonagricultural derivatives. Earlier, electricity derivative was permitted which shall add to business growth over the long term.

 

MCX is a play on commodity volatility especially related to gold and oil prices which is reflected in the recent sharp surge in its Average Daily Turnover (ADT). Surge in ADT has been far higher than estimated. Analysts at ICICI Securities said they thus revise FY26E, FY27E estimates upwards and introduce FY28E. The brokerage firm estimates revenue/EBITDA/PAT compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44 per cent/52 per cent/50 per cent over FY25-28E. Analysts value MCX at 40x FY28E EPS to arrive at a target price of ₹2,980 and recommend BUY rating on the stock.

 

While bullion contributed a meaningful share of incremental volumes in Q3, base metals in futures and natural gas in options have also seen a meaningful jump in the past few months. Considering the recent spurt in price volatility, analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expect commodity volumes to normalize, assuming flat volumes in January 2026, followed by a 20 per cent decline in February 2026. Thereafter, the brokerage firm said they build in a gradual recovery with 3 per cent MoM growth in March 2026 and 1 per cent MoM thereafter.

 

Analysts have raised EPS estimates for FY26/FY27/FY28 by 9 per cent/22 per cent/24 per cent, respectively, to factor in strong volume growth. They reiterate a Neutral rating on the stock with a one-year target price of ₹2,750 (premised on 38x FY28E EPS).  =============================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.