Oil India, ONGC surge up to 10%; what's driving upstream oil firm stocks?

Oil India hit a 52-week high at ₹492, as the stock rallied 10 per cent, while ONGC surged 7 per cent to ₹266.05 on the BSE in intra-day trade on Wednesday.

Oil India, ONGC share price today

 

Shares price of state-owned upstream companies Oil India and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) rallied up to 10 per cent each on the BSE in Wednesday’s intra-day trade amid higher oil prices.

 

Oil India hit a 52-week high of ₹492, as the stock rallied 10 per cent in intra-day deals on the back of three-fold jump in the average trading volumes. It surpassed the previous high of ₹491.65 touched on June 16, 2025. At 10:06 AM; the stock was quoting 7 per cent higher at ₹481.70, as compared to 0.5 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. A combined 10.81 million equity shares changed hands on the NSE and BSE.

 

 

Share price of ONGC surged 7 per cent to ₹266.05 on the BSE in intra-day trade. As many as 23.29 million equity shares of the company changed hands on the NSE and BSE.

 

What's driving ONGC, Oil India stock price?

 

According to a Reuters report, oil prices settled 3 per cent higher on Tuesday as producers reeled from a winter storm that hobbled crude production and drove the US Gulf Coast crude exports to zero over the weekend.

 

Brent crude futures settled up $1.98 or 3.02 per cent, at $67.57 a barrel; and the US West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1.76 or 2.9 per cent, at $62.39 a barrel, the news agency reported.

 

The upstream company’s realisation is now closely correlated to Brent. A USD 1 per barrel rise in Brent crude oil prices could result in upstream company’s standalone annual EPS rising by around 2 per cent.  ALSO READ | Q3 Results Today 

ONGC Joint Venture Companies sign shipbuilding contracts

 

ONGC, through its joint venture companies with Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (Japan), has entered into ship building contracts with Samsung Heavy Industries (South Korea), for the construction of two state-of-the-art Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLECs). The fast-tracked conclusion of these SBCs reflects strong trilateral cooperation and industrial partnership among India, Japan and South Korea.

 

Meanwhile, as per the media reports, ONGC is looking to hire technical experts for its oilfields in the western offshore. The company has floated a tender during the first week of January for the same and has reached out to as many as ten global players including Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Chevron seeking bids from them. The last date for bid submission is March 16, and the company is hoping to complete the process by June subject to technical discussions and reviews, ICICI Securities said in a note.

 

Opportunities

 

The upstream companies are set to capitalize on several opportunities within the shifting energy landscape both in India and internationally. With the Government of India prioritizing increased domestic hydrocarbon production and reduced import dependence, significant policy measures are being implemented to boost exploration and production (E&P) activities. 

 

Notably, the government aims to expand the area under exploration from the current levels to 1 million Sq. KM by 2030. Additionally, 99 per cent reduction in 'No-Go' zones in offshore regions will open vast new areas for exploration, Oil India said in FY25 annual report.

 

HDFC Securities view on Oil India

 

Oil India’s material subsidiary, Numaligarh Refinery Ltd (NRL), was supposed to commence operations of the expanded refinery capacity (from 3MMTPA to 9MMTPA) in phases from December 2025 onwards. However, the commencement of refinery operations has been delayed. Analysts at HDFC Securities now expect operations to commence in Q4FY26 and expect the refinery to gradually ramp up in succeeding quarters.

 

Given that Brent crude oil prices have a direct impact on Oil India’s crude oil realization and profitability, a USD 1 per barrel decline in Brent crude oil prices could result in Oil India’s standalone annual EPS declining by 2 per cent. Similarly, any depreciation of INR against USD bodes well for Oil India’s earnings since a INR 1 depreciation in INR/USD could result in annual EPS increasing by 2.6 per cent, the brokerage firm said. Analysts have a ‘BUY’ rating on Oil India with a target price of ₹495 per share.  =============================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.