Rising exports, SUVs to drive Hyundai India earnings; Nomura retains 'Buy'

Also, the recent data supports this outlook, with Hyundai Motor India reporting a 50 per cent jump in bookings in the past few days, signaling strong consumer demand.

Japan-based brokerage Nomura has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Hyundai Motor India (HMI), projecting a 27 per cent earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY26-28F, driven by a robust model cycle, rising sports utility vehicle (SUV) mix, and a higher share of exports. The brokerage has also maintained the target price at ₹2,846.

 

The brokerage sees major potential for HMI, positioning it as one of the key beneficiaries of the evolving Indian automotive landscape.

 

“Hyundai India is entering a strong model cycle,” Kapil Singh and Siddhartha Bera of Nomura said, noting that segments such as compact SUVs and diesel variants are likely to gain traction following the GST reduction. 

 

 

Also, the recent data supports this outlook, with the company reporting a 50 per cent jump in bookings in the past few days, signaling strong consumer demand.

 

HMI’s growth outlook is underpinned by both domestic and export strategies. With global volumes targeted at 5.5 million units by 2030, India is expected to contribute 15 per cent of the total, implying domestic sales of around 830,000 units by CY30F, up 40 per cent from 600,000 units in CY25F.    

The export mix is also set to rise from ~22 per cent in FY25E to ~30 per cent by CY30E, further boosting earnings potential. “Export margins are stronger than domestic margins, and a rising export mix should support overall profitability,” Nomura analysts noted.

 

Capacity expansion is another key driver. HMI’s new Pune facility is expected to add ~250,000 units of annual capacity (with 170,000 units by Q3FY26E), bringing total Indian production capacity close to 1 million units. The company may invest further to meet its ambitious CY2030 targets, while continuing to focus on “quality of growth,” stressing upon profitability over sheer volume.

 

The product pipeline also promises to fuel the company’s growth, analysts believe. Hyundai plans to launch an India-centric EV by 2027 in the A+ SUV segment and roll out 26 new launches in India by 2030E, comprising both fresh models and refreshed versions of existing vehicles. 

 

Key launches include the new Venue later this year and the Bayon in 2026, while the Genesis brand and the Palisade SUV are also under consideration for the Indian market. “We expect some of the 18+ hybrid models globally to make their way into India,” analysts added.

 

Technological innovation remains a focus, with Hyundai advancing hybrid and EV tech, introducing a new hybrid system, and boosting EV range to over 600 miles with high-performance batteries. Software development is also a priority: the Pleos OS will improve security and vehicle reliability, while the Pleos Connect infotainment system, rolling out from Q2FY26, offers multi-window displays, personalised profiles, and an integrated app marketplace.

 

With bookings surging and strategic capacity and technology investments in place, analysts said, HMI appears set for major growth.