'AI cannot eliminate an entire occupation', say experts on future of jobs

AI will augment jobs rather than replace them, say experts at BS Manthan, highlighting the need for upskilling and policy support to maximise productivity and employment growth

The growing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace has long fuelled debates about job displacement. However, experts argue that while AI can automate specific tasks, it is unlikely to replace entire occupations. 

Radhicka Kapoor, senior employment specialist at the International Labour Organisation (ILO) Decent Work Technical Support Team (DWT) for South Asia, explains, “Every occupation involves certain tasks. When technological innovations like AI and generative AI are introduced, some tasks within those occupations will be automated, but not the entire occupation. As a result, the entire occupation will not be eliminated.” 

Speaking at a panel discussion on ‘Future of jobs’ on the second day of BS Manthan, she said, while automation may displace some tasks, it will also enhance productivity by freeing up time for other activities. A study conducted two years ago supported this, showing that the augmenting effects of AI far outweighed its automation effects. The study, Kapoor said, found that only 2.3 per cent of global jobs were susceptible to automation, whereas 13 per cent of local employment was expected to benefit from AI’s augmenting impact.   

 

The study also highlighted regional variations. In high-income countries, 5.5 per cent of jobs were vulnerable to automation, compared to 1 per cent to 2.5 per cent in developing nations. However, the positive impact of AI was universal, with 13 per cent of global employment expected to benefit from technology-driven augmentation.  

 

‘No jobs apocalypse in 2025’

Kapoor said that if we had discussed the future of jobs a little less than a decade ago, the conversation would have been very different. “Early studies raised concerns about job displacement. But today, as we discuss this in 2025, we can confidently say there will not be a ‘jobs apocalypse’.” She said that global evidence, including research from the ILO, supports the view that the augmenting effect of technology will significantly outweigh its automating effect.  

 

Employment growth drivers in India

Sumita Dawra, secretary, Ministry of Labour & Employment, highlighted key sectors driving employment in India. “The services sector, FinTech, the construction sector, manufacturing, and MSMEs are growth drivers.” She also pointed to the role of startups in job creation, saying “Startups are employing more and more people. In FinTech alone, we have 10,000-plus startups.” 

She said, projections suggest that 24 per cent of the incremental global workforce over the next decade will come from India. She further emphasised the significance of Global Capability Centres (GCCs), saying, “India is the global hub for the GCCs. They are  employing lakhs of young people at the moment.”

  She also acknowledges the role of digitalisation in employment generation, particularly through skill development initiatives and digital hubs.

 

Role of upskilling, human-centric technology

Hiranmay Pandya, all India president of the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh, said that while technology evolves, it also creates new employment opportunities. "As technology evolves, new jobs will be created, such as roles for team workers and platform workers.” 

Talking about the job crisis during the Covid-19 pandemic, he said, despite job losses, productivity increased due to technological advancements in that period. 

Pandya also rejected the notion that job creation is limited to the government sector, highlighting rapid growth in the private sector, particularly in the electronics and media industries. “Jobs in the private sector, such as in the electronics and media industries, are growing. The electronics sector in our country is expanding faster than others, and we are seeing investments from countries like Japan.” 

Stressing on the importance of upskilling, he said, “Upskilling is crucial for the workforce to adapt to new technologies. Many individuals lack the understanding of emerging technologies, which is why it is essential to focus on training and skill development.” 

“Recently, organisations like the ILO and governments worldwide, including in the Asia-Pacific region, have taken steps to move forward with initiatives to address this, he said. However, Pandya cautioned against over-reliance on technology, saying, “Technology should serve us, not the other way around. Machines should be our servants, not the other way around.”