Brent crude faces limited upside above $70, as higher prices may dampen Chinese demand, while increased OPEC+ production is helping offset geopolitical risks
Silver outlook continues to remain constructive on rate cut expectations, huge ETF inflows, elevated geopolitical and economic risks. Strength in gold bodes well for silver.
On the technical side, charts are crystal clear. Gold recently broke out of a bullish pole-and-flag pattern on the weekly time-frame, a setup that often precedes strong continuation rallies.
Gold outlook: As the Fed Chair Powell's focus has shifted from inflation to the weakening US job market, the US monthly job report will be critical for gold for short-term trading.
Strong ongoing rally in Chinese equities is mostly positive for the grey metal. CSI33 Index has rallied over 27 per cent from its April low.
Gold outlook: Spot gold continues to find robust support from a confluence of macroeconomic factors, chief among them being the rapidly deteriorating fiscal landscape in major economies.
Stock Market Holiday: Indian equity markets will remain closed for trading today on account of Ganesh Chaturthi
Praveen Singh, head of currencies and commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, recommends buying on dips rather than chasing the rally. He also advises closely monitoring the geopolitical situation
Praveen Singh, head of currencies and commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, has shared his outlook for the yellow metal
In ultra short-term, spot silver is likely to be under pressure on reduced safe haven demand and a firmer US Dollar
Gold is under pressure from geopolitical factors as traders expect that the US-driven peace efforts may lead to a breakthrough in the Ukraine war talks
Gold trading strategy: In the near-term, safe haven demand is somewhat subdued due to US-China trade truce extension and hopes from the upcoming US-Russia meeting in Alaska.
Gold faces a strong resistance at $3420 (₹102,300 at INR/USD rate of ₹87.43) as posed by the 4-month-old trendline.
Silver rally is primarily being driven by risk sentiments as expectations of rate cuts buoy the risk assets. Another supporting factor is healthy ETF inflows.
President Trump said that US tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports would be announced within the next week or so. Tariffs of pharmaceuticals could be as high as 250 per cent.
Gold/Silver ratio at 89.96 has recovered nearly 5 per cent after it reached a seven-month low at 85.88 on July 14.
Considering the US GDP data, weekly job report, hot PCE report and calm in the wider markets despite tariffs, gold is susceptible to further decline in the near-term, says Praveen Singh of Mirae Asset
MCX initially said trading would resume at 9:45 AM, but later delayed it to 10:10 AM due as trading in the platform had not resumed
Gold price outlook: The yellow metal price is likely to be influenced primarily by the US Dollar Index and tariff news flow
Gold is likely to range-trade unless and until major breakthroughs in trade deals happen, or tariff tensions are ratcheted up further