Fitch Ratings

Fitch lifts FY26 growth forecast to 7.4% on stronger consumer demand

Fitch raises India's FY26 growth forecast to 7.4%, citing strong consumer demand and GST-driven sentiment, while expecting slower growth ahead, limited rupee fall and one more RBI rate cut

Fitch ups India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 7.4% on GST reforms

Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent, on increased consumer spending and improved sentiment boosted by GST reforms. It said falling inflation gives the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) room for one more policy rate cut in December to 5.25 per cent, following 100 bp of cuts in 2025 so far. Fitch said GDP growth accelerated further in the July-September quarter to 8.2 per cent, from 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter. "Growth will ease over the remainder of the financial year 2025-26 (to end-March), but we have raised our full-year growth forecast to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent in September," Fitch said in its Global Economic Outlook report for December. Private consumer spending is the main driver of growth this year, supported by strong real income dynamics, increased consumer sentiment, and the impact of recently implemented goods and services tax (GST) reforms. Effective September 22, GST on abo

Indian OMCs unlikely to see impact on margins after US curbs on Russian oil

Fitch Ratings says sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil - which supply around 60% of India's Russian crude - may not materially affect OMC margins, though compliance challenges

AI shifts from support role to core strategy, industries speed up adoption

US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, along with the EU's ban on refined products derived from Russian crude, are unlikely to materially dent the margins or credit profiles of India's state-run oil marketing companies, Fitch Ratings said. The ratings agency warned, however, that the eventual impact will hinge on how long the sanctions last and how strictly they are enforced. Russian crude made up about a third of India's oil imports between January and August 2025, and its discounted rates have been a key boost to OMC profitability. Fitch expects the companies to adhere to sanctions, though some refiners may continue sourcing unsanctioned Russian barrels. Traditionally reliant on Middle Eastern oil, India significantly increased its imports from Russia following the February 2022 Ukraine invasion. Western sanctions and reduced European demand made Russian oil available at steep discounts. As a result, India's Russian crude imports surged from under 1 per cent to nearly 40 per cent of

Fitch Ratings revises outlook on Adani Ports, Adani Energy to 'stable'

Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on two Adani group firms, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone and Adani Energy Solutions, to 'Stable' from 'Negative', saying the contagion risks across the conglomerate have eased. Fitch affirmed the two companies' long-term issuer default ratings at 'BBB-'. The agency also affirmed the 'BBB-' ratings on Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd's (AEML) senior secured notes and those issued by Adani Energy Solutions Ltd's (AESL) subsidiary, Adani Transmission Step-One Ltd. The outlook revisions reflect Fitch's view that contagion risks across the Adani Group have eased. The conglomerate has retained access to diversified funding sources despite a November 2024 US indictment involving board members of a group entity, Adani Green Energy Ltd. Fitch also cited a September 2025 ruling by India's market regulator Sebi, which found no violations of disclosure norms or evidence of market manipulation as alleged in a 2023 short-seller report. Fitch said liquid

RBI move to ease risk weights may free up Tata Capital's equity: Fitch

Fitch Ratings says RBI's proposal to ease risk weights on infra loans could free up capital for Tata Capital, while relaxed ECB norms may aid NBFC foreign funding

Fitch ups India’s GDP forecast, Centre clears transport projects in Bihar, Nepal unrest & more

Fitch Ratings has raised India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.5%, citing strong domestic demand. The global rating agency said robust real incomes will boost consumption.

Fitch ups India FY26 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 6.5% on domestic demand

Global growth is now forecast to be 2.4 per cent in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points (pp) since June but a sizable slowdown from 2.9 per cent last year and below trend

How gaps in governance standards weigh on India's sovereign ratings

Fitch Ratings keeps country at lowest investment grade, citing poor scores in political stability and corruption control

Fitch upgrades JSW Infra to investment grade; Moody's outlook positive

Fitch upgraded JSW Infra to investment grade 'BBB-', while Moody's affirmed its Ba1 rating and revised outlook to positive, highlighting strong growth plans in ports and logistics

Fitch Ratings affirms India's credit rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth

Fitch affirms India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, citing strong growth and external resilience, even as high debt and tariff risks remain

Fitch affirms India ratings at BBB- with stable outlook on robust growth

Strong demand and solid external finances support rating; high debt and fiscal gaps remain key constraints, Fitch says

US tariffs: Fitch cautions rising second-order risks may hit India Inc

Fitch says Indian pharma, oil marketing companies and auto exporters face downside risks from US tariffs, with Biocon and HPCL-Mittal flagged as vulnerable

S&P raises credit ratings of SBI, HDFC Bank, Tata Capital, 7 other firms

S&P Global upgraded ratings of 10 Indian banks and finance firms, including SBI, HDFC Bank and Tata Capital, a day after raising India's sovereign credit rating to BBB

S&P upgrades India's credit rating to 'BBB' after 18 years, outlook stable

S&P Global upgrades India's sovereign rating to BBB from BBB-, citing robust growth, improved monetary policy framework and fiscal consolidation despite tariff concerns

Bank NIMs may shrink by 30 bps in FY26 on loan repricing: Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings forecasts margin contraction in FY26 as 45% of bank loans reprice downward quickly; repo rate cuts and unchanged low-cost deposit share are key factors

RBI's liquidity steps to aid 100 bps rate cut transmission in 2025: Fitch

Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings says ₹5.6 trillion liquidity infusions and cash reserve ratio cut will support loan growth, though banks may see short-term pressure on margins

China shows signs of tackling price wars taking toll on its EV industry

The Chinese government is signalling enough is enough when it comes to the fierce competition in the country's electric car market. China's industrial policy has engineered a remarkable transformation to electric vehicles in what is the world's largest auto market. In so doing, it has spawned far more makers than can possibly survive. Now, long-simmering concerns about oversupply and debilitating price wars are coming to the fore, even as the headline sales numbers soar to new heights. Market-leader BYD announced this week that its sales grew 31 per cent in the first six months of the year to 2.1 million cars. Nearly half of those were pure electric vehicles and the rest were plug-in hybrids, it said in a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing. The company phased out internal combustion engine cars in 2022. BYD came under thinly veiled criticism in late May when it launched a new round of price cuts, and several competitors followed suit. The chairman of Great Wall Motors warned the indus

Strong FY25 performance supports standalone credit profiles of banks: Fitch

Fitch Ratings on Monday said Indian banks' strong financial performances in the financial year ended March 2025 support the standalone credit profiles of rated banks and position the sector for future growth. The sector reported improved asset quality, stronger capital buffers and stable profitability despite the slowest sector loan growth in four years. "We expect steady performance to continue, though sustaining sound core financial metrics that strengthen loss-absorption buffers and resilience to economic shocks relative to the previous cycle would support positive momentum for rated banks' standalone credit profiles," Fitch said. The rating agency believes banks can sustain steady performance across most credit metrics in FY26, except for earnings due to cyclical pressures on margins and credit costs. "Indian banks' strong financial performances in the financial year ended March 2025 (FY25) support the standalone credit profiles of rated banks and position the sector for future

Warner Bros' credit rating downgraded to junk by Fitch on split-up

On Monday, the entertainment conglomerate announced plans to split into two publicly traded companies