Analysts believe that OMCs now have a large margin of safety owing to low oil price and a large capex plan which gives them confidence that a normative level of earnings will still be maintained.
Nomura said that the INR's depreciation remains a headwind for OMCs and CGDs, as their input costs are dollar-linked while revenues are in rupees.
Technical chart shows that this oil-related India-listed stock - OIL India - can potentially rally up to 27% from here on as Crude Oil soars on Israel-Iran war fears.
Oil and gas stocks rallied on the BSE, led by Oil India, HPCL, BPCL, IOC, and ONGC, which rose over 1-5 per cent amid sector optimism
The state-run refiner has purchased the 1-million-barrel cargo of Medanito crude for February delivery from European trader Mercuria, the sources said
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Oil and marketing companies (OMCs) such as Indian Oil Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) slumped 4.1 per cent each at Rs 162.20 and Rs 457, respectively in intraday deals
In past three days, shares of OMCs have declined between 8 - 12 per cent on concerns that recent petrol and diesel price cut could hurt the companies' profit margins in the near-term.
Analysts at CLSA believe that HPCL, BPCL and IOC were pricing-in much higher than historical marketing margins, and a notable premium to the global peers
These stocks can gather steam provided crude prices soften and the government policies remain supportive. Here are the key levels one needs to monitor for these stocks.
Attractive valuations and robust cash flows are the other positives
In the past six months, IOCL (up 28%), HPCL (up 22%) and BPCL (up 19%) have outperformed the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex index
BPCL, HPCL and IOC may rise up to 11 per cent in coming sessions, and if they manage to sustain their upward rally, medium-term bias may strongly shift in bull's favour.
After two tight quarters of profit-margin shrinkage due to global volatility, Indian OMCs are expected to see reduction in operational losses in the October-December quarter (Q3FY23).
Barring Indian Oil Corp, which gained over 4%, the other two oil marketing companies, BPCL and HPCL, trade with negative returns on YTD basis and have immensely underperformed benchmark indices
According to the current chart structures, shares of OMCs needs to hold their relevant support levels to stay afloat.
Except IOC, which managed to hold 200-DMA, other stocks are in no mood to conquer their respective hurdles yet, technical charts indicate
OMC shares traded mixed with HPCL and IOC down 1 per cent and BPCL marginally in the green
Energy relations between India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, and Saudi Arabia have soured as global oil prices spiked