Fifteen years ago, Tom Clancy, the well-known exponent of the techno-novel, wrote a book called The Bear and the Dragon. In it he dealt pretty much with the sort of thing this book is about, namely, how the Chinese Communist leadership, far from being strong and unshakeable, was weak and vulnerable. Indeed, so weak and vulnerable that in order to stay on in power, it launched a war against Russia, only to be beaten back. That book was a treat to read.
This one, even though Ms Shirk (former deputy assistant secretary of state who dealt with China) will hate the comparison, is no different. It should become a must read for every Indian who cowers and cringes at the very mention of China. For, as Shirk shows, there is no reason to do so. The core of her message is that only one thing has changed over the last two decades: instead of being a paper tiger, China has become a cardboard tiger.
Most people will pooh-pooh the idea. But once they have read this book, they will at least do it less noisily. After all, one only has to recall how China responded to the Tibetan uprising just before the Olympics to get a sense of its vulnerabilities and the resultant paranoia. The Chinese embassy in New Delhi was surrounded by three rings of defence against attacks by Tibetan women. You don’t become a super power merely because you have some money and some guns.
That episode should have shown to Indians what Shirk has been able to see and document: the Chinese leadership no longer has to fear the foreign devil who speaks English; it has to fear the average Chinaman who does so. She also shows how there is no shortage in the variety of unrests in China: you name a type of discontent, and it is there. But unlike India, China has not had the sense to develop political outlets for the head of steam that is building up. The only way it knows of dealing with mass discontent is repression.
Shirk also deals with the aspect that the Chinese leadership is most anxious to hide: a split not in the ranks of the party, but in the highest echelons of the leadership. And the second- and third-level Chinese leadership knows this. The drive against corruption, for example, when mayors are hanged, is seen as just a tea leaf, a straw in the wind that the big boys are pulling in opposite directions.
Another thing that emerges is a little-known fact: contrary to popular belief, especially in India, China can’t get along with anyone. Japan, Taiwan, Korea, India all have difficulties with a neighbour whose word can’t be trusted and who tends to rely more on strong-arm tactics than diplomacy. This, too, seems to be a part of the Communist party repertoire, merely their way.
But it is all based on bluff and bluster. As we see in this book, when push comes to shove, China always backs down. Its leaders simply don’t have the stomach for a confrontation because they don’t know how it will turn out for them personally. That’s the key thing: the personal interests of the Chinese communist leaders. It now always comes before the country’s interests, or is at least seen as being coterminous with it.
In the end, though, because of who she was, the purpose of the book is really to tell the United States what to look out for and how to deal with such a country. Her advice is that the US should be patient but firm. She asks: “Preventing war with a rising China is one of the most difficult foreign policy challenges our country faces. Are we up to it?”
Her answers are not very reassuring. “Our best hope is that as China’s leaders address their domestic problems, they will be able to deal with the world in an increasingly responsible way.” In other words, we are out on a wing and a prayer. Co-operation with China will be possible only if, she says, “America has the wisdom to appreciate China’s fragility.”
Taking all things into account, not a very comforting thought. What we have on our borders is a very strong and very paranoid neighbour which has to be handled exactly as such people have to be — firmly, gently and with a clear determination to demonstrate that bluster will not get it very far. India’s current stance is just the opposite.
CHINA
FRAGILE SUPERPOWER
Susan L Shirk
OUP
Pp 320; Rs 545
