With the best monsoons in 25 years, the overall food grain production is expected to increase marginally by 8.4 million tonne from the average output in the past five years at 140.57 million tonne in 2019 -20, says a report.
The monsoons have been normal or excess in 84 percent of the regions, while the rest of the regions getting insufficient rainfalls, the National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC) said in a report Monday.
Production of monsoon-sown food grain is expected to be 140.57 mt in 2019-20, up by 8.4 mt from average output in the past five years, it added.
The report said total rice is expected to show marginal improvement in sown area by 2.80 percent as farmers have shifted 20-25 percent of their crop areas from non- basmati rice to basmati in Punjab due to the higher export demand last year.
"Receding waters in the flood-affected regions of Bihar, Odisha and Karnataka have helped recover the areas under paddy but delayed in sowing, which is likely to lower the yield by 2.58 percent," NBHC head for research & development Hanish Kumar Sinha said in a statement.
Maize acreage is expected to go up, but output may fall by 5.75 percent due to the massive armyworm infestation.
Area and production of jowar is expected to fall by 4.79 percent and 0.61 percent respectively, while bajra area is expected to increase by 2.47 percent but is expected to decline by 4.69 percent, it said.
In the pulses sector, acreages under tur and urad exceeded last year's levels after widespread rains in early August boosted the sowing, the government has begun to dispose of stocks.
Arhar area is expected to rise by 1.69 percent and the production is expected to rise significantly by 21.27 percent, while urad output is expected to be lower by 0.16 percent.
"We expect the area under moong to increase by 4.66 percent while production is expected sharply lower by 17.23 percent mainly due to flooding of fields in MP, Maharashtra and Rajasthan," Sinha added.
In oilseeds, castor area is expected to increase by 5.32 percent and likely to see significant increase in production by 21.07 percent due to good prices of castor in domestic markets.
Production fall is expected to be 8.90 percent and 2.32 percent for sesame and sunflower, respectively, and marginal improvement is expected in groundnut and niger seeds by 4.93 percent and 4.93 percent, respectively.
Soybean acreage expected to improve by 5.68 percent but the production is expected be lower by 17.72 percent due to heavy rains and floods in major growing areas.
The cash crops are likely to be stable as area for sugarcane is expected to be up by 14.32 percent but production is likely to dip by 5.60 percent as farmers from major growing areas have to other crops.
Cotton area and production are expected up by 4.32 percent and 9.99 percent, respectively, the report added.