Delhi needs to double its growth rate to reach Singapore levels by 2047

Assumes that Singapore's economy grows at a constant rate of 1.8% or lower, Delhi would need to nearly double its growth rate for per capita income to 9.1% to reach Singapore's level by 2047

Although Delhi’s per capita income declined six per cent in 2020-21 compared to last year, Delhi’s deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia has claimed that the government plans to take the city’s per capita income levels to match Singapore’s by 2047.

At Rs 3.54 lakh per annum, Delhi has one of the highest per capita incomes in the country—nearly three times the national average. In PPP terms, Delhi’s per capita income amounted to $16,098.4 in 2020-21. On the other hand, Singapore’s per capita income in PPP dollars was nearly six times that of Delhi at $94,417.5 in 2020.

Delhi’s per capita income had increased 4.6 per cent in the last five years, and Singapore’s growth has been a much lower 1.8 per cent.

However, if Singapore continues to grow at a current rate, its income by 2047 would increase to $153,449 in PPP terms, while Delhi’s current growth rate would only take the city to $52,019 and would still be a third of Singapore’s.

A Business Standard analysis indicates that Delhi would need to nearly double its growth rate for per capita income to 9.1 per cent to reach Singapore’s level by 2047. The calculation assumes that Singapore’s economy grows at a constant rate of 1.8 per cent or lower.

In dollar terms, Delhi’s income would have to grow 12.33 per cent annually to reach Singapore’s income levels by 2047.

Further analysis of historical data indicates that Delhi’s annual growth rate has been just about 7.7 per cent over the last decade. So, the city needs to surpass its past performance by a fair amount to reach Singapore’s level.