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The data for two important indicators -- fiscal deficit and core sector -- for the month of September will likely be released today.
At a time when the government is trying hard to contain the fiscal deficit at what it calls the "red line" of 4.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the deficit has touched 75% of the budget expenditure (BE) already.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its second quarter monetary policy review, indicated that there could be moderate slippage in fiscal deficit targets. The central bank projected the fiscal deficit at 5% of the GDP.
"Containing fiscal deficit in 2013-14 within the budgetary limit could be a challenge, given the level of gross fiscal deficit during the current fiscal so far," the RBI said.
The Centre's fiscal deficit reached 74.6% of the BE in the first five months (April-August) of the year. Last time the deficit was higher than 75% at this time of the year was only in 2008-09, when the global financial crisis began.
In the previous year, at this point, the deficit was 65.7% of the BE.
Plan expenditure has ballooned already, with expenditure on this count at Rs 1.83 lakh crore, accounting for 33% of the Rs 5.55 lakh crore in BE. Plan expenditure had been 28.4% of GDP at this time in 2012-13.
The Finance Minister P Chidambaram earlier this month said that the ministry is planning a compression in the non-planned expenditure.
The Non-Plan expenditure was Rs 4.8 lakh crore or 43.2% of the Rs 11.1 lakh crore in the BE. It had been 43% of BE in April-August of 2012-13, too.
September data for eight infrastructure industries is also likely to be released today. The core sectors grew at a seven-month high of 3.7% in August against 6.1% in the same period last year. That was on the back of high growth rate in electricity, cement and coal segments.
The core sector contributes 38% to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). But, these numbers were not translated into the IIP as some data in the core sector undergo revision by the time IIP is released.
The industrial output expanded at a sluggish pace of 0.6% in August compared to 2.7% in July.
During the first five months of 2013-14, the growth of core industries has slowed to 2.3% compared to 6.3% in the same period last year.
The industries are expected to show meek progress in the remaining year, according to experts.
| Month | Aug-12 | Sep-12 | Oct-12 | Nov-12 | Dec-12 | Jan-13 | Feb-13 | Mar-13 | April'13 | May'13 | June'13 | July'13 | Aug'13 |
| Core Sector Growth (%) | 6.1 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | -2.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
