Important sections of the United Front leadership are sceptical about the longevity of the IK Gujral government. Many of them have been expressing their misgivings about the new Congress-friendly arrangement over the past few days. Yesterday, CPI(M) general secretary HKS Surjeet told reporters, without pulling any punches, that elections were inevitable, perhaps after a year.
In that context, he said he United Front had been wise to elect a leader from north India. The main battle for the Front in the next elections would be with the BJP, he predicted, and that will be in the northern states. A south-based leader may not be as useful in fighting communalism as a northern leader, he argued.
I want the government to continue for a full term, he said, but added that, given the pulls and pressures on it, it would not last beyond one year.
Surjeet had no doubt about the UF remaining united, but said the Congress was facing internal problems. However, the Congress Party would not split, he predicted, particularly since there was no charismatic leader in the party.
What the party has today are only traditions, symbolised in the party president, the party flag and its symbol, he said, adding in this situation, no Congressman would like to discard the party.
I have nothing against the south. In fact, it was I who had proposed the names of leaders from south ten months back. But the situation at that time was different. Radical changes have taken place since then, he observed.
Surjeet had proposed Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singhs name for prime ministership but agreed to go with the consensus on Gujral. When asked whether he considered Gujral as a good Front leader to fight communalism in the event of mid-term elections, Surjeet said that everybody (all Front partners) will have to put their heads together. Besides, the choice of leader was based on political assessment and consensus. Senior CPI leaders have also spoken in private about their expectation that elections might be held after a year. One of them even said he would prefer that the Front cause elections at the beginning of next year, instead of waiting for the Congress to withdraw its support again.
The Janata Dal is a divided house and the resultant instability in the largest party in the Front may have an impact on the stability of the entire Front. Despite the stand-off between Gowda and party president Laloo Prasad over the past few months, Gowdas firm grip over the Front had provided a measure of stability.
In the new set up, Laloo Prasad has caused bitterness by rudely asserting his supremacy. Indeed, he had been so insistent on having his nominees in the new ministry that a senior Front leader had told him a few hours before the induction ceremony that the Janata Dal could form a government on its own and the rest of the Front partners would support it from outside. The Left parties are openly opposed to Laloo Prasads government in Bihar and have conducted mass agitations against it. The Left may balk further if he insists on keeping a whip hand on the Gujral administration.
