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IMF's growth projections are 80% wrong: EAC-PM member Rathin Roy

The council has been dismissive of projections of multilateral lending agencies

Press Trust of India  |  New Delhi 

Rathin Roy
Rathin Roy, a member of Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), during a press conference in New Delhi on Wednesday. PTI Photo

Noted economist and member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Rathin Roy on Wednesday dismissed lowering of India's growth projections by the and the World Bank, saying they often go 'wrong'.

While the (IMF) has lowered India's growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.5 percentage points to 6.7 per cent, the has pegged economic expansion at 7 per cent, down from 7.2 per cent projected earlier.

The Asian Development Bank too lowered India's current fiscal growth to 7 per cent from 7.4 per cent, while cut economic growth forecast to 6.7 per cent from earlier projection of 7.3 per cent.

"IMF's growth projections are 80 per cent wrong...World Bank's growth projections are 65 per cent wrong," he said in a media interaction when asked to comment on lowering of growth projections by international multilateral lending agencies.

While the council has been dismissive of projections of multilateral lending agencies, the government does not miss an opportunity to tom-tom improvement in ease of doing a business ranking by and another such improvement in indices.

Roy, who is also director of economic think tank NIPFP, however, said the council will examine causes of slowdown.

India's economic growth slipped to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal.

Replying queries at the same media interaction, member and Chairman of the Council said "whether we like it or not we don't have good data on employment".

"In a country like India, you cannot get good data on employment and jobs from enterprise surveys. The labour bureau enterprise surveys covers less than 1.5 per cent of total employment," Debroy said.

Noting that we can get data on unemployment and employment in India is through household surveys, he said the last NSSO household survey was out in 2011-12 and the next results of NSSO household surveys will not be available till 2018.

First Published: Wed, October 11 2017. 19:00 IST