India and Myanmar: Choosing between democracy and army can be perilous

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Myanmar comes at the intersection of two important events — the culmination of the country’s first elections after an interregnum of more than two decades, leading the West to lift sanctions, and the new political realities emerging in Myanmar after the engagement of tribal groups.

A military takeover of Myanmar (which was then known as Burma) in 1988 led India to launch a virulent criticism of the regime. Coupled with withdrawal of Japan and the West, the field was left free for China to move in. But India’s position changed almost completely in 1991 when the process of engaging with the generals began. The compulsion was China’s expanding presence in the country and domestic factors such as the need to engage with militant groups in the northeastern states more proactively, and Myanmar could play a role in that.

 

The last time the US urged India to nudge Myanmar towards democracy (President Barack Obama, who asked India to step up to the plate) New Delhi ignored the call. Pranab Mukherjee, the then foreign minister, on a visit to Myanmar in 2006 explained, “We have to deal with governments as they exist. India is a democracy and wants democracy to flourish everywhere."

Against this background, with Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) sweeping the by-elections held in April, winning 44 of the 46 seats, India is moving cautiously, for the army continues to be a big factor in the politics and society of Myanmar.

Political arrangements
The Myanmar Parliament is bicameral. The lower house has 440 seats (of which 330 are elected) and the Upper House has 224 seats (168 elected). There are 14 regional assemblies.

General elections (which the NLD boycotted) took place in 2010 after two decades. The Army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party claimed overwhelming victory, but it was also the beginning of a Myanmarese perestroika. President Gen Than Shwe stepped aside, retiring with him, arch rival Gen Maung Aiye, but retaining the levers of power behind the scene as senior general like mentor leader Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore.

Six power centres, all headed by former generals, including one serving, were left behind. Thein Sein became president responsible to the union parliament and “duty-bound to honour and safeguard the constitution”. As the candidate of Union Solidarity and Development Party, he heads the cabinet and it is his job to make the system work.

Myanmar has two vice-presidents, of which one is a civilian, the only one, a ethnic Shan, in the power structure. The senior vice-president, who is the army’s candidate, is the leader of 25 per cent of all legislative seats held by the army.

By-elections are held when MPs become ministers. In 2012, the NLD contested 46 seats for the by-elections and won 44.

“The popularity of the NLD is such that if general elections are held, even a dog will win with NLD backing,” said a New Delhi-based Myanmar observer. Since then rapid movement has taken place on political reform, thousands of political prisoners have been released, the NLD has got a rival political party, Suu Kyi got an internet connection in January 2011, a passport earlier this year and will travel abroad for the first time in 30 years, this year.

But concerns remain. The Army continues to be a factor in the countryside. Faced with warring tribal groups, the average Myanmar citizen has been taught to believe in centrist nationalism and views the Army as the uniting nationalist force. Moreover, according to the constitution, a person who has married a foreigner is barred from becoming president. So Suu Kyi, who now heads a minuscule opposition, will have to change the constitution, if she wants to pursue her ambition to lead the country.

All the countries that would like to have a say in steering the future on Myanmar are conscious that they might have sought democracy for Myanmar in the past, but the Army will never go away.

So when Suu Kyi announced she would not take her oath if she was asked to"safeguard" the army-created constitution, (which is part of the oath), not a single Western country supported her. Ultimately she had to take the prescribed oath.

Snapping at Su Kyi’s heels is another firebrand NLD leader Min Ko Naing, who was in jail till 2011. Min Ko Naing organised the All Burma Federation of Student Unions. He was sentenced to 65 years in jail on charges of treason and was released this January. Witnesses say he was greeted by a huge crowd outside the jail in Thayet, 550 km north of Yangon.

Also released was a famous tribal leader, Khun Tun Oo, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, which represents the Shan ethnic minority. He had been serving a 93-year sentence for high treason. Indian observers say the first priority for Suu Kyi and her associates will be to work out how they will promise people a better life. The Army is a well-oiled, organised machine. NLD is just getting itself together. Added to that is Myanmar’s ethnic challenge.