The political scenario in Uttar Pradesh was frenetic, as parties, while being guarded about validating exit polls, began taking positions to win friends and influence allies.
The first off the mark was the Congress. State party leader Beni Prasad Verma said: "Congress has the key to form the government in Uttar Pradesh and we will form it. If we have to take support, then BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) is better than SP (Samajwadi Party). The SP is a party of goons, the whole state will be troubled by them. BSP is a party of the Dalits,"
Verma’s comment came on the heels of exit polls in the past 24 hours projecting SP as the top gainer, in what is being seen as a fractured mandate in UP.
While many Congress leaders dismissed this, ascribing it to “Verma’s personal views”, there was a political explanation. In 2007, BSP managed as many as nine seats in the Uttarakhand Assembly. This time, this number is likely to go up, especially in the foothills.
“If the exit polls are accurate and the Congress gets a slender edge over the BJP in Uttarakhand, they will seek our help in forming the government in Dehradun. So, there could be an Uttar Pradesh-Uttarakhand combo deal,” said a top BSP leader. This theory was given some credence by the reported meeting between the BSP leadership and top leaders of the Congress, including treasurer Motilal Vora (who was the Governor in Uttar Pradesh about 10 years ago), a few days before Congress president Sonia Gandhi went to the US.
Internal party discussions suggest the Congress is not in favour of aligning with the SP, in self-interest. As a Cabinet minister involved with the elections in the state explained, “Since the day we started giving Mulayam Singh support in 1989, that started the decimation of the Congress in the state. We were gradually reduced to a fringe player and that is the reason for our dismal state today.” According to him, the general thinking within the party is that the Congress would rather be in the Opposition in the state, instead of making a bid for power after 22 years as part of a coalition.
Senior Congress leaders have been reiterating what General Secretary Rahul Gandhi, as well as the Congress president Sonia Gandhi have said; in the scenario of no clear majority in UP, the Congress would prefer to sit it out in the Opposition, rather than be a junior partner to any other party and form the government.
Seen in this light, coal minister and senior Congress leader Sriprakash Jaiswal’s statement of President’s Rule in Uttar Pradesh being a distinct possibility, in the scenario of no single party getting a clear majority, might not be a coincidence.
“The little gains that the Congress has accrued from Rahul Gandhi’s hard work in the past two years in the state might all be lost with another tie up-with SP. The party will be reduced to the same condition that it (Congress) is in Tamil Nadu,” said a political observer.
He added that even in the case of Governor’s rule, the Congress could consolidate itself in six months to a year, when elections were to be held. But this scenario is fraught with dangers of Congress gaining little and alienating both regional parties — SP and BSP.
That President’s Rule is an option is the belief of the NDA as well. Senior leaders of the BJP-led NDA believe the Congress could try for this because it is the only way to get its agenda fulfilled in Uttar Pradesh. “Congress will not go with Samajwadi Party because both the political groups are fighting for minority votes in the state,” said a senior BJP leader involved in elections..
The Mulayam Singh-led Samajwadi Party is hoping the Congress will support them in Uttar Pradesh in the same manner in which they have supported the UPA government in Delhi. “There is no reason why the Congress Party should not support a non-communal party in the state. We believe the Congress will support us,” said Shailendra Singh, Member of Parliament (MP), Samajwadi Party.
Whether by the evening of March 6, a clear government formation in UP will be evident is still uncertain. Till then, politicians and parties will carry on statements and counter statements.
