Indifferent performance of the south-west monsoon continues to cause concern about re-stocking of water reservoirs, though it has allowed the kharif sowing to progress smoothly, except in a few pockets. Rain deficiency is noticeable in the entire central belt, from west to east, comprising Gujarat, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
However, good sowing has been reported even from several regions of this belt. But soyabean planting has been hit due to poor rain in parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and that of groundnut in Gujarat. This caused the prices of soyabean and groundnut oils in the Mumbai market to firm up.
But the area under aromatic basmati-like rice has reportedly increased sharply, particularly in the flood-hit areas of Punjab and Haryana, where the crops had to be planted afresh following the drainage of flood water. This augurs well for the export of premium quality scented rice, as the domestic prices of such rice may rule lower than last year.On the whole, the acreage seeded with almost all crops, including paddy, coarse cereals, oilseeds, pulses, sugarcane, cotton and jute, till July 22 has been significantly larger compared to last year.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) still seems confident that the rainfall deficiency, reckoned at 14 per cent on July 21, would be largely made up in the rest of the monsoon season, lasting till September. In its weekly update, issued on July 23, IMD said monsoon activity had revived due to strengthening of cross-equatorial wind flows and the development of an off-shore trough along the west coast. “An active phase would prevail over central and adjoining north peninsular India and along the west coast during the next week,” IMD stated. If this prediction holds true, it will spur crop sowing in the rain-starved central belt as well.
Thus, the real worry is not so much about kharif prospects, which remain optimistic, but about water balance, which has progressively been deteriorating. The total stock in the 81 major reservoirs monitored regularly by the Central Water Commission (CWC) was 28.65 billion cubic metres on July 22. This is 35 per cent below normal (last 10 years’ average) and 32 per cent below even last year’s drought-driven low level. This can constrain the availability of water for both canal irrigation and hydel power production, as 36 of these 81 reservoirs have power plants attached to them.
Barring Kerala and Tamil Nadu, in all other states the water stock in the majority of dams is less than 40 per cent of designed capacity. The situation is particularly disquieting in the eastern states. The overall storage is below normal by as much as 78 per cent in the dams in West Bengal, 67 per cent in Orissa and 42 per cent in Jharkhand. It is a similar case in Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh, where the water level was 62 per cent and 33 per cent below normal respectively, on July 22.
The silver lining in this otherwise none-too-comforting situation is the good progress of kharif sowing. This has been facilitated chiefly by two spells of good rainfall — in the beginning of June (no deficit till June 9) in the southern half of the country and in the first week of July (2 per cent above normal) in most parts of the country. The cumulative rainfall in the whole country has, however, remained in the negative domain this season so far. The rainfall deficiency increased steadily from 6 per cent on June 6 to 16 per cent by June-end. Though it has reduced marginally to 14 per cent by July 21, even this level of deficit is worrisome, especially considering that the monsoon season (June to September) is nearing the half-way mark.
According to the information on crop sowing received from the states by Krishi Bhawan till July 22, paddy had been planted on nearly 17 million hectares this year, against 15.8 million hectares in the same period last year. Coarse cereals, including maize, jowar and bajra, had also covered 14.2 million hectares, against 13.2 million hectares last year.
In the case of oilseeds, despite some lag in sowing of soyabean and groundnut in some pockets, the overall area coverage of about 13 million hectares is larger than last year’s 12.3 million hectares.
Similarly, pulses have been planted by the farmers on over 5.7 million hectares, against last year’s 5 million hectares, in expectation of good prices. High prices of pulses have partly been responsible for keeping the food inflation in double digits. The anticipated better production in the current kharif may soften the prices to some extent though the overall deficit of over 3 million tonnes in the demand-supply of pulses is unlikely to be bridged.
