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The withdrawal of Quami Ekta Dal leader Mukhtar Ansari from the contest in Varanasi to "strengthen secular forces" against Bhartiya Janata Party's (BJP's) Prime Minister candidate Narendra Modi could set the tone for tactical voting by the minorities all over Uttar Pradesh, a state which is absolutely crucial if Narendra Modi is to form the government at the centre.
Ansari said he had withdrawn from the contest to enable all forces that wanted to defeat the BJP to come together. It is widely acknowledged that with an average 18 to 20 per cent Muslims in most constituencies of UP, preventing division of minority votes can cause a dent in BJP votes.
Ansari has yielded to AAP, party functionaries in Varanasi said, because the plight of Muslim weavers will be one of the key issues that Kejriwal will be raising in the campaign. Ansari is acknowledged as an important muscleman and political influence in the area so his tactical tie up with AAP which is avowedly against strongarm tactics by any community under all circumstance, is somewhat ironic.
But AAP supporters see an up side to this. "If there was a real alternative to Modi as per our reading it was either Kejriwal or Ansari but after Ansari's withdrawal the prospects are really high," said a senior party leader.
Local leader Ajay Rai of Congress has lately opened up a quadrangular contest by choosing to contest from Varanasi. After Ansari's departure, political analysts believe that the battle could turn slightly in favour of the AAP chief.
"The benefit of Ansari's withdrawal will be most favoured by Kejriwal as AAP's main vote bank is the weaver community which has no reason to back a Congress candidate after their sufferings at the hands of them at the Centre," said Ramagya Rai, faculty member at the Banaras Hindu University in Varanasi.
Rai, who is soon to release a book on the plight of weavers essentially based in Varanasi and the nearby regions, said that holy town is the home to around 5,00,000 weavers.
"The schemes that the Central government had floated for these weavers were of no use to them and Kejriwal has struck a chord with this community with his intend to curb corruption in the system," said Rai.
However, Rai said that Kejriwal may not be able to attract all the Muslim support in his favour as some may still "choose to go for Congress's Rai".
Mohammed Ahmed, an activist and a weaver in Varanasi, said that although Kejriwal is gaining momentum among the Muslims but he still has a long road to cover. "After Rai's decision to contest in Varanasi people certain have shown inclination towards him as he is seen as someone who is a people's man," said Ahmed.
The question is how much influence Ansari’s action will have in surrounding areas and whether it will touch a chord with the Muslim voter elsewhere in the state. The biggest chunk of 18 UP seats will go to the polls on 12 May.
