A dry spell in the first 10 days of August is a matter of greater concern than was the case with even longer rainless phase in June. This is the period when rains could have facilitated sowing of shorter-duration varieties of usual crops in areas left unsown till now. Farmers would now have to go in for alternative crops on the revival of the monsoon, which the India Meteorological Department (IMD) maintains will happen soon.
IMD’s weather bulletin issued today says that the monsoon activity has already improved over central and adjoining east India. The plains of north-west India and adjoining Rajasthan may follow suit from tomorrow. It expects the situation to improve in other parts of the country from August 15 onwards.
An advisory issued by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) to farmers suggests toria (oilseed) as the alternative crop that can be planted even now in the entire Indo-Gangatic plains spanning from Punjab in the north-west to Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh in central parts and Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar and Assam in the east.
| ALL FALL DOWN Kharif sowing as as on August 6 (million hectares) | ||
| Crop | Current year | Last year |
| Paddy | 22.81 | 28.59 |
| Coarse cereals | 16.60 | 15.73 |
| All pulses | 7.89 | 6.97 |
| All oilseeds | 15.07 | 15.60 |
| Cotton | 9.29 | 7.94 |
| Sugarcane | 4.25 | 4.37 |
| Source: Agriculture ministry | ||
Meanwhile, in an unusual move, the IMD has issued a fresh update on the long-range monsoon forecast on August 9, revising downwards its prediction of total rainfall for the 4-month season (June to September) from 93 per cent to 87 per cent of the normal (with a model error of 4 per cent).
Worse still, it has lowered its rainfall forecast for August as well from 101 per cent projected earlier to a mere 90 per cent (9 per cent model error).
The total countrywide rainfall deficiency, which had come down from 46 per cent on July 1 to 19 per cent by July-end, has aggravated again to 28 per cent by August 9 due to the first week of August going dry.
Though even a 90 per cent rainfall in August, if distributed properly, should see the standing crops through, but this may not be adequate to sufficiently replenish reservoirs which feed the irrigation network in the post-monsoon phase and also run hydro-power plants.
However, refilling of most reservoirs has so far been relatively better than last year. According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), the total water stock in the 81 major reservoirs monitored by it was 54.83 billion cubic metres (BCM) as on August 6. This is about 1.87 BCM, or 3.5 per cent, higher than last year’s corresponding level of 52.96 BCM, but 2.66 BCM, or 4.6 per cent, lower than past 10 year’s average storage of 57.49 BCM.
Regarding kharif sowing, the reports received from states by the agriculture ministry indicated that barring paddy, groundnut and sugarcane, the planting of most other crops was relatively better compared with their corresponding position last year.
Paddy acreage (as on August 6) is down by about 5.7 million hectares, or 20 per cent, over last year’s plantings of 28.59 million hectares.
The acreage under coarse cereals has increased this year to 16.6 million hectares from 15.73 million hectares last year. This might offset, albeit marginally, the likely shortfall in rice production. All the major coarse cereals, including maize, jowar and bajra, have gained in acreage.
The sowing of pulses, too, has increased this year in response to lower rainfall and higher ruling prices. The area under all the kharif pulses was estimated at 7.89 million hectares, almost a million hectares more than 6.97 million hectares last year. All the three major kharif pulses — tur, urad and moong — have seen larger planting.
This should help increase domestic availability of pulses to an extent though the prices may not fall perceptibly as import dependence would still be high.
The oilseed acreage has, however, dwindled because of poor sowing of groundnut in most of its traditional bowls of Gujarat, Maharashtra and some southern states for want of rains. The total area under kharif oilseeds is reckoned by Krishi Bhawan at 15 million hectares, against last year’s 15.6 million hectares.
However, soybean has gained in acreage — 9.36 million hectares now against 9.13 million hectares last year. So is the case of cotton which has been planted this year on 9.29 million hectares against last year’s 7.94 million hectares.
