Expert moots commodity contingency plan

India should prepare an exclusive commodity-specific contingency plan in case the southwest monsoon does not progress as forecast, noted farm scientist M S Swaminathan said.

"We should have a contingency plan in case the monsoon does not progress well," he said. The plan should spell out ideal seed varieties, fertiliser ratio and soil moisture levels with respect to commodities. It should encompass all issues relating to farm productivity in rainfed areas, ranging from supply chain to marketing, he added.

The southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast one week ahead of schedule on Thursday. Swaminathan, father of Green Revolution during the sixties, cautioned it had been found from past experience that the early onset of monsoon was followed by receding rainfall. On April 19, the Meteorological department had projected a normal southwest monsoon for 2007.

In its long-range forecast, it had said southwest monsoon rainfall in June-September is likely to be 95 per cent of the long-period average. Rainfall within 10 per cent of the long-period average is termed 'normal' monsoon. The department has introduced a new forecast model this year.