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Untimely rains and hailstorms across many wheat-growing regions in the last few days might hit the crop and lower production to less than the estimated 100 million tonnes.
In the past month, wheat prices have risen five per cent to Rs 1,700 a quintal in mandis in the North. The minimum support price for the crop is Rs 1,350 a quintal.
Farmers ruled out the possibility of late arrivals. They said this time, flattening of plants would hit the crop's yield.
Talking to Business Standard, Indu Sharma, director of the Wheat Research Institute, Karnal, said abrupt rain and hailstorms had affected the wheat crop in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. However, introduction of late-sowing varieties this year might help farmers.
Sharma said had it not been for the adverse weather, India could have recorded a better crop, as wheat acreage increased from 29.6 million hectares in 2012-13 to 31 million hectares in 2013-14. Also, this year saw better seed varieties and the absence of yellow rust.
"The coming 15-20 days are crucial for the wheat crop. If there are no rain showers and no sudden increase in temperature, farmers can expect a good yield," she said.
In Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh, wheat arrivals are expected to commence at the end of March.
Bhupinder Singh Mann, president of Bhartiya Kisan Union, said substantial crop losses were recorded in specific belts such as Gurdaspur in Punjab, Hisar in Haryana, Chitrakoot in Uttar Pradesh, owing to hailstorms, sudden rains with strong winds. He, however, added this might not have a significant impact on the overall crop.
R K Garg, president of the Confederation of Roller Flour Mills of North Zone, said the government hadn't brought out tenders for the open market sales scheme in March.
This year, supplies are under stress, as the Food Security Act has raised government agencies' requirement of food grain, leaving little for the market. For a correction in the price of wheat in the open market, millers are pinning their hopes on new arrivals.
