Rainfall Situation during July has been 7% above the LPA

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released the latest data on the rainfall during June-July of 2016. This year the Southwest monsoon rainfall was 11% below the Long Period Average (LPA) during June, however, July rainfall has been 7% above the LPA.

A north-south belt comprising of the States and Meteorological sub divisions such as West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, North interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have received wide spread and excess rainfall during July 2016. It has completely wiped out the 11% deficiency of June rainfall as the cumulative rainfall for the first half of the monsoon season (June-July) is normal with 0% departure from the LPA.The rainfall statistics are given in the following table:

 

Regions 01 June-30 June 01 July-31 July 01 June-31 July% Dep. from LPA % Dep. from LPA % Dep. from LPACountry as a whole -11% 7% 0%Northwest India -7% 9% 6%Central India -17% 18% 6%South Peninsula 26% -12% 4%East & Northeast India -28% -2% -13%

According to IMD data, out of the last 46 years since 1970, July month rainfall was below 100% of LPA during 34 years. During last 10 years, 2016 is the only year after 2013 and 2010, when July month rainfall has been above 100% of LPA. The rainfall data of the month of July for last 46 years is given below: -

All India Rainfall (% Departure) in the month of JulyYear July Year July1970 -16 1993 -4.51971 -9.7 1994 20.81972 -31.2 1995 3.51973 -03 1996 -7.31974 -4.4 1997 -1.61975 06 1998 -2.11976 -0.9 1999 -8.81977 13.2 2000 -7.71978 1.7 2001 -4.81979 -16 2002 -54.21980 01 2003 6.51981 6.5 2004 -19.91982 -23.1 2005 14.71983 -4.3 2006 -021984 -7.9 2007 -2.41985 -5.6 2008 -16.51986 -14.2 2009 -4.31987 -28.8 2010 2.81988 26.6 2011 -14.91989 5.1 2012 -13.41990 -4.1 2013 7.31991 -8.7 2014 -9.61991 -8.7 2015 -16.41992 -19.1 2016 6.6

Forecast for second half (August-September) of 2016 monsoon: -

(a) Rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season (August to September) is most likely to be above normal (>106% of LPA) with a probability of 55%.

(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of 8%.

(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.

(d) The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% 4% of LPA as was forecasted in June.

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