A K Bhattacharya: Why Raj Thackeray may still succeed

NEW DELHI DIARY

Social scientists have argued that Raj Thackeray, the Maharashtra Nava Nirman Sena leader, will fail to sustain or get popular support for his recent movement in Mumbai against migrant workers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh seeking livelihood in the country's financial capital. The argument is premised on their assessment that the cultural, social and economic milieu that prevailed in Bombay in the 1960s is no longer the same in Mumbai in the first decade of the 21st century.

The Marathi angst that was present four decades ago due to the perceived threat from south Indians cornering the city's most remunerative jobs (and which Bal Thackeray used to build a political base for his party) is not there in Mumbai today to be exploited by Raj Thackeray, it has been argued. Also, migrant workers from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are mostly doing only those jobs in the city (driving a taxi or vending vegetables) which are by and large shunned by the Marathis, who have moved up in life and therefore will not ordinarily look at them as an option.

On the contrary, the average middle-class Marathi will look at a north Indian migrant worker as fulfilling some of the basic economic needs of Mumbai, even though he may frown upon the quality of the service he gets from the latter. Thus, the social scientists have concluded, Raj Thackeray will fail to strike a chord with the Marathi middle class, the way his uncle had managed to do and that lack of support will be strong enough to put an end to the current movement against north Indian migrant workers.

This assessment may not be correct because the diagnosis of why Raj Thackeray launched this movement seems to be flawed. It might appear that the Maharashtra Nava Nirman Sena leader launched this movement to protect the Marathis or create more job opportunities for them. This may not be entirely true. A more important reason for launching the movement was his growing insecurity as a Marathi leader. With the demographic profile in Mumbai, in particular, changing rapidly, a Marathi leader in that city has good reasons to feel threatened. It is this risk perception that seems to be the driving force behind his movement.

Note that while defending what they did in Mumbai, Raj Thackeray and his associates are pointing their fingers at leaders like Amar Singh and Lalu Prasad. They have argued that Mr Singh and Mr Prasad are trying to create a political base for themselves by exploiting the sentiments of a large number of north Indians engaged in different jobs in Mumbai. Their real anger is against these leaders from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In fact, one of the statements from Mr Thackeray has clearly suggested that these leaders should confine their politics to their own states and refrain from expanding their territory.

It is a fight for constituency. Raj Thackeray and other Marathi leaders have no objection to workers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh living in Mumbai to earn their livelihood. The problem starts when these north Indian workers become a potential vote bank and political leaders from the north descend on the city to build a base for themselves or their parties. If leaders like Lalu Prasad, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati refrain from exploiting the large presence of people from north India in Mumbai for political gains, the movement against migrant north Indian workers in India's financial capital will die down on its own. Already suggestions have been made to the effect that north Indian migrant workers are free to live in Mumbai, but they must do so as Mumbaikars and, therefore, not as a vote bank for politicians from the north.

But it is naive to believe that political leaders from north India will stay away from Mumbai because the potential political gains are too tempting for anyone to ignore. Thus, Raj Thackeray's movement will also gain impetus and even though the north Indian migrant worker serves a specific economic purpose (providing cheap labour), their continued presence in the city will become an issue because it is after all a fight for exploiting a vote bank.

In many ways, this is a story that is likely to be repeated in many other parts of India if our political leaders do not mend their ways. A few years ago, the appointment of Sheila Dikshit as Delhi's chief minister had become a big issue even within the Congress party because she was not seen as a politician hailing from Delhi. Would the scenario be any different if a leader from Orissa or Bihar, for that matter, were to exploit the large number of migrant workers from either of these states living in Kolkata for political gains?

Sixty years after India's independence, migrant workers in the country are still seen as potential vote banks and political leaders do not still miss an opportunity to exploit them. Today, Raj Thackeray sees his political base shrinking as a result of north leaders trying to exploit the sizeable presence of north Indians in Mumbai. But if he gets an opportunity like Lalu Prasad, he too would not hesitate to play the same game.

ashok.bhattacharya@bsmail.in