Love in the air?

India and Pakistan, with the help of a well-meaning aunt who looks suspiciously like George W Bush, are preparing to date again. India has offered to reduce troop levels in Kashmir, which is something Pakistan has been demanding for many years.

It has indicated its willingness to send Hurriyat representatives to Pakistan even though everyone knows that the Hurriyat is a Pakistan-supported organisation. Pakistan has noticeably reduced its export of terrorists to the Kashmir valley but India wants a full stop.

The Prime Minister is to visit Srinagar, his Pakistan counterpart is to visit New Delhi. President Musharraf has come out with a "plan". India has not rejected it""but it will""and asked him to make a formal proposal. And now there is talk that Mr Musharraf may visit India soon. As the song from the film Lion King goes, there is love in the air.

Since this is the nth time in 57 years that such amourousness has gripped the leaders of the two countries, the people can be forgiven for wondering if this is just one more of those things, or something more substantial.

Past experience suggests it will end with hissing and spitting, but two new factors are worth pointing to. On the Indian side, as Henry Kissinger recently pointed out, Indian foreign policy is no longer Pakistan-centric. India is looking to build relationships without allowing the Pakistan factor to cloud them.

This suggests a new self-confidence that will be useful when dealing with Pakistan. On the Pakistan side, the new factor is the hugely increased influence of Islamic groups on government policies""like what would happen if the VHP or the Bajrang Dal had a direct and significant influence on foreign policy.

What must give India confidence is that Pakistan realises it cannot wrest Kashmir by force, and that the UN is able to do little. Cross-border terrorism looks increasingly like an idea whose time has gone. So if it wants to get anything at all after 57 years of wasted effort, it will have to negotiate with India.

And so the time seems to be coming, as seems apparent from the way Mr Musharraf has been trying to prepare public opinion in his country, when Pakistan will formally depart from its old positions on the Kashmir issue: plebiscite, rewriting borders, etc.

It may not agree to converting the Line of Control into the international border, which is what India wants. But the aunt who looks so much like Bush also sees that as the logical and least disruptive solution.

However, Pakistan will have to get something more if it is to settle the issue, and a number of options are floating in the wind. The question therefore is what India will offer by of concessions, or things that can be sold by Mr Musharraf as concessions at home.

A full settlement is still some distance away, and should never be considered either easy or a foregone conclusion, but at least the post-Kargil hostility has given way to the preliminaries of genuine engagement with a knotty problem.