For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the results of recent by-elections that were declared on Tuesday might have come as something of a jolt. Coming so soon after the party swept the north of India, taking all the seats in Gujarat and Rajasthan in particular and over 70 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP), the fact that the Congress in the first two states and the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the latter state have taken off some of BJP's gains might deceive observers, including those in the BJP. They might assume that there is disappointment with the performance so far of the Narendra Modi government. However, such election results should be read with caution. Hasty judgments should be avoided.
In fact, if anything, as always, local factors, preferences and requirements seem to be imposing themselves on the electorate. In UP, the ruling party in the Assembly is the SP, with a commanding majority; the pay-off to sending an SP representative to Lucknow for any district is considerable, and, therefore, the SP's gains are not surprising. In Gujarat, the Congress has merely managed to avoid a clean sweep, which is not exactly a tremendous comeback. Indeed seen from this point of view, it is a reminder of what a unique set of circumstances surrounded the general election earlier this year. They reflected widespread disillusionment with the incumbent government, and indeed the performance of the Indian state in general. Mr Modi effectively presented himself as an outsider and a challenger - and the electorate responded to that. If the results today are different, it is because the mood today is different. And if the mood today is different, it is because the circumstances in which elections are being held are different. Indeed seen from this angle, it appears that the BJP has little to complain about - it has demonstrated, for example, that its good performance in Assam in the general elections was no fluke. Indeed it has also won one seat in West Bengal, and come second in another. Even when the elections are state elections and the issues are local, therefore, the BJP has been able to consolidate some of the new territory opened up by the general elections.
Essentially, the Union government should not be distracted by the noise of politics-as-usual. It has a mandate for five years - a mandate that is historic in its size and scale - and it should keep on working hard to live up to that mandate. Indeed these results may have strengthened Mr Modi within the BJP, as he was not seen to be involved in the campaign - which seemed more about communal polarisation than development.
One positive consequence is that non-BJP parties, which were knocked out since May 16, will perhaps get a spot of encouragement that might help them be more effective watchdogs. And the Congress' relative success in Rajasthan, under the leadership of Sachin Pilot, should cause it to reflect on whether it needs more dynamic leadership at the Centre.
