StatsGuru: 14-January-2013

How did commodities fare in 2012, and what hints does that provide for 2013?

As Table 1 shows, crude oil begins 2013 pretty much where it ended 2011. This is in spite of a dip in price in the middle of 2012 — a dip that Indian consumers did not receive full advantage of, because of the weak rupee.

Natural gas also had a dip in price in the beginning of 2012, but increased fairly steadily thereafter, as Table 2 shows.

What of world prices of iron ore and steel? Both dipped sharply late in 2012 – especially because of fears of a greater-than-expected Chinese slowdown, as Table 3 reveals. Both have since made up their losses, and might well continue to climb in 2013.

 

In terms of metals, gold was of course the standout performer. As Table 4 shows, it provided good returns in 2012, though the price decreased a little towards the end of the year. Silver, also graphed in the same table, was more volatile.

Interestingly, metals with industrial rather than store-of-value uses did not all provide major returns, as Table 5 shows. Copper and aluminium increased little over 2012, and nickel is actually cheaper.

What of agricultural goods? Sugar and cottonseed (for oil) provided returns broadly on a par with the inflation rate in India, as Table 6 shows. Rubber continued to fall in price — perhaps a free-trade effect.(Click here for table)

Wheat, on the other hand, showed a big price increase. Indeed, as Table 7 shows, wheat is at historically high price levels, revealing the incentive to export.

Cotton has come off its peaks of a few years ago, as Table 8 shows, but is also at a higher level than it was five years ago.