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There was a time when Dalits would raise the slogan, “upar aasmaan, neeche Paswan”, meaning, (you can rely on) the sky above and Ram Vilas Paswan (on the earth below). In this charged political atmosphere, if Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) joins the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), it would not only alter Bihar’s electoral math in a big way but also would send a larger message around the country. But what bears political emphasis is that the LJP’s move would prompt Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi to refurbish his image as a national leader.
Despite the setbacks the LJP suffered in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls — Paswan was beaten in his own borough — and the 2010 Assembly polls, he continues to command the votes of the Dalit Paswans. The Dalits, including the Paswans, comprise approximately 16% of Bihar’s population and keeping in mind their numerical strength, every political party has tried to allure them. Paswan, who has a dedicated vote base in the Dalit community and has the backing of a section of Muslims, had resigned from the Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s ministry after the 2002 Gujarat riots.
The other major implication of Pawsan’s return to the NDA's fold is that it would help the BJP to strategise and secure the backward caste and Dalit votes that are reportedly gravitating towards the party in the state after the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) relentlessly propagated the message that a vote for Modi amounted to a vote for India’s first backward-caste Prime Minister.
"Paswan was once part of the NDA and if he rejoins the alliance now, it would be a big boost for Modi as it would give him a chance to exhibit the alliance to counter the label of so-called untouchability. Paswan, a Dalit leader, has a considerable base in Bihar. At this juncture, the BJP needs backward and Dalit votes of regional parties to achieve its national dreams in 2014. Examining the sequence of events, the BJP’s popularity graph is rapidly rising in Bihar as well as in Uttar Pradesh. Moreover, in politics, there are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests, observes S K Dwivedi, professor at University of Lucknow.
Opinion polls have predicted that the ruling Janata Dal (United) is heading for a complete rout in the Lok Sabha polls as the 'chaiwalla' (tea vendor) pitch is working well among non-Yadav Other Backward Castes (OBCs) and the Most Backward Castes (MBCs) in the state. The upper castes seem to have polarised around Modi as well.
The JD (U) is likely to lose many seats because of tactical voting against Nitish Kumar by Yadavs and upper castes. In areas where the BJP has a stronger chance to win, even Yadavs seem to be voting for the saffron party. In regions where the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has better chance to win, the upper castes are likely to vote for its candidates.
Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD will also able to turn around its political fortune as the surveys give the party 11 seats against four in 2009. Yadav’s famed M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination largely remains intact despite Nitish Kumar's decision to break away from the NDA. The two together comprise around 25% of the vote base. The Muslims are apparently waiting to see which way the Congress decides to ally. It will have a bearing on the Lok Sabha voting pattern as Muslims remain strongly opposed to Modi in the state.
However, the split in RJD came as a shock for the beleaguered Lalu, who already faces the prospect of losing a key ally in Paswan to the NDA. In 2004, Congress, RJD and LJP contested Lok Sabha elections in an alliance winning 29 out of the 40 seats in Bihar. However, the alliance broke up in 2009 when RJD decided to offer three seats to Congress, 12 to LJP and keep 25 for itself. The collapse caused losses for all three parties.
Winning 200 to 225 seats, up from 116, is a tall order for the saffron party. Poll arithmetic suggests that the BJP's success will hinge primarily on making huge gains in three major states — Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Bihar (40) and Maharashtra (48).
