 "Tamil Nadu's sceptre battle looms")
Tamil Nadu is set for a legislative Assembly poll in April or May. For four decades, the main rivals have always been the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led by M Karunanidhi, now 91, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), led by J Jayalalithaa, 67.
The previous Assembly election was the first time, in 2011, that a new party, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), led by actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth, became the largest opposition grouping.
At present, the ruling AIADMK, the DMK and a newly formed People's Welfare Alliance which include the communist parties, apart from the national parties, the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, are strategising and initiated alliance talks (except the AIADMK).
Jayalalithaa is confident her party will return to power. "We also fulfilled the aspirations of the people and ensured betterment of their lives," she said recently at the Assembly. Her rivals question the state's economy, allegedly growing crime rates, issues relating to farmers,on growth of industries, etc.
The AIADMK had seen ups and downs since 2011, when it came to power. Her party and alliance partners won 203 of the 234 Assembly seats. The scam-hit DMK and its alliance could win only 31. The AIADMK contested 165 seats, winning 150; ally (which walked out soon after the elections) contested 41 seats and won 29, becoming the second largest single party lead. The DMK, which contested 124 seats, won 23.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the AIADMK won 37 seats of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, third largest in the House, after the BJP and the Congress. In the Rajya Sabha, it has 11 members and this has helped it negotiate with the Centre, say analysts. One example was Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's visit to Jayalalithaa's residence after she had to step down as chief minister (CM) on being convicted in a Rs 66 crore disproportionate assets case. After she was released from jail and again sworn in, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited and had lunch with her, perhaps the only visit to a state CM's home after becoming PM.
Her absence was a challenging period for the state and sent a message that without Jayalalithaa, things would come to a standstill in her government. When she was released by a court order and taking the CM's oath for a fifth time, she swung into action with a series of announcements for various sectors and measures to help common people from growing inflation, beside conducting a Global Investors Meet (GIM).
Jayalalithaa says her social welfare projects and schemes have helped the state improve its show on various indicators, including in the health and education sectors, and that her government had been successful in bringing about inclusive growth.
"This is why people want this government to continue," she said in the Assembly. "Real growth is reaching out to all sections. The progress made in education and health define growth in the Social Progress Index (SPI). Equality can be achieved only where SPI grows."
As usual, her opposition differs vigorously. Vijayakant says the financial situation is dire. DMK's heir presumptive Stalin demanded a position statement on the actual investments that had come from the GIM - the government claimed agreements were signed (September 2015) for investment worth about Rs 2.4 lakh crore.
PMK founder S Ramadoss said the AIADMK government did not solve issues related to agriculture distress, formation of the Cauvery Management Board, reclamation of Katchatheevu island and attacks by the Lankan navy on Tamil fishermen. MDMK general secretary Vaiko said not much has been done to follow up on 'Vision 2023' document, as the state does not have enough funds. The Vision 2023, issued by Jayalalithaa in 2012, envisaged the state to become number one in economic and social indicators and one of the top three investment destinations in Asia by 2023.
Jayalalithaa retorts with figures of spending and achievement across sectors such as Rs 23,583 crore of allocation for agriculture in five years, compared with the DMK government's Rs 7,655 crore. Also, agricultural production rose 68 per cent in 2014-15, compared to 2010-11. Allocation to education, she says, rose 116 per cent to Rs 84,568 crore in the past five years. She claims enrolment for higher education rose 8.6 percentage points in the country but in the state, it increased 26.8 percentage points.
"Power cuts were the biggest challenge before me when I assumed charge in May 2011. The previous DMK government had taken the state to a dark era," said Jayalalithaa, who claims her government augmented installed capacity by another 7,486 megawatts (Mw) and ensured no power cuts since June 2015.
The first file she signed on becoming CM in May 2011 was giving free gold for a wedding thali (mangal sutra) to poor women. Followed by 20 kg of free rice each, free mixies, grinders, fans for householda, free cows and goats.
For students, Rs 6,456 crore was spent in the past five years to buy laptops. She also announced forming 36 anti-land grab cells in the state and setting up of special courts to try these cases. Her government also claimed credit for the Centre's move to make a public notification of the final award of the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribuna in 2013. She was also keen on representing the state's requirement and opinion on various financial, policy-related matters to the Centre through letters to the prime minister.
She also launched various 'Amma' branded products, aimed at winning a second term in office - Amma canteens, Amma cement, Amma mini buses, Amma mineral water, Amma salt, Amma pharmacy. She launched a scheme for villagers to access key government officials, titled 'Assured Maximum Service to Marginal People in All Villages', and unsubtly shortened to AMMA, an acronym that derives mostly from the redundant words in that title.
Other policy announcements included plans for $30 billion investment in infrastructure, a land bank of 53,000 acres, augmentation of effluent and industrial water supply capacity, widening of state highways and creation of a Tamil Nadu Infrastructure Fund.
Arun Mammen, managing director of tyre major MRF, recently said the state's approach towards industry was progressive.
"We have plans of expansion in Tamil Nadu. The government and all agencies involved in investor facilitation are the key reason for our keen interest in the state," said Siddhartha Lal, managing director (MD) of Eicher Motors.
Good infrastructure, logistics, accessibility, personnel and business-friendly policies are features here, says Robert Frittrang, MD at BMW.
Pro-active initiatives have been generated on a timely manner by the authorities, said Kiyoshi Mizuhara, MD of Komatsu India.
One recent setback was the unprecedented heavy rain and the resultant flooding in four northern districts, including Chennai, in November and December 2015. The government was criticised for not taking adequate measures and then trying to take credit for relief work. However, damage control and disease control measures were well received.
