Star Wars Award for being a Jedi Master:
Dr. Raghuram Rajan: Calm, unruffled, prescient, like Yoda, Dr. Raghuram Govind Rajan is our Man of The Year. Steadfastly refusing to bow to pressure from North Block, parrying off journalist questions with elan (“You want to call me Santa Claus, you want to call me hawk, I don’t know. My name is Raghuram Rajan and I do what I do.”), and staying focused in a world of volatility – all of these show that indeed, the force was with Dr. Rajan. Four rate cuts and 125bps later, Rajan is firmly on top of things. Will his tenure get renewed next year? Will he become Finance Minister? Will he head IMF? Or will he simply go back to teaching at Chicago? Wait and watch in 2016.
Dr. Raghuram Rajan: Calm, unruffled, prescient, like Yoda, Dr. Raghuram Govind Rajan is our Man of The Year. Steadfastly refusing to bow to pressure from North Block, parrying off journalist questions with elan (“You want to call me Santa Claus, you want to call me hawk, I don’t know. My name is Raghuram Rajan and I do what I do.”), and staying focused in a world of volatility – all of these show that indeed, the force was with Dr. Rajan. Four rate cuts and 125bps later, Rajan is firmly on top of things. Will his tenure get renewed next year? Will he become Finance Minister? Will he head IMF? Or will he simply go back to teaching at Chicago? Wait and watch in 2016.
Kabhi Haan Kabhi Naa Award for uncertainty:
Janet Yellen: By the time this column is published, the US Fed would have raised rates…or not. First, uncertainty on quantitative easing (“taper tantrums”) in 2013 and then uncertainty over raising of policy rates. No one really knew what the U.S. Fed was thinking. Careers are made by poring over every word and every punctuation mark in the Fed’s statements. And yet, no one could take a guess when exactly interest rates in the U.S. would rise. Just for this sheer uncertainty in 2015, U.S. Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen wins the Kabhi Haan Kabhi Naa award.
George RR Martin Award for unpredictability:
The Goods and Service Tax (GST) Bill: Everyone knows that Martin has to finish his book (A Song of Ice and Fire) series. No one knows when exactly, in the future, he will actually get around to doing this. What’s worse, he doesn’t seem particularly interested. Everyone knows that the Parliament has to pass The GST Bill. No one knows when, in the future, this will happen. What’s worse is that neither the BJP nor the Congress seem particularly interested in getting this done. The latest Game of Thrones season is due in April 2016. There is hope that GST may finally get cleared around then.
Bombay Velvet Award for disappointment:
The Sensex: 2015 was supposed to be India’s year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi would usher in structural reforms and kick-start the capex cycle. Oil prices were already in our favor. These factors would thus boost corporate earnings and ensure that the Sensex would end 2015 above 30,000. In fact, the Sensex did close above 30,000 on 4th March 2015. But since then, things haven’t gone as per plot. Expectations have thus sobered down considerably, the champagne is over, taking with it all the bubbly exuberance. Looking ahead, pundits are understandably licking their wounds and advising caution for 2016.
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo Award for getting inflows:
Equity Mutual Funds: It was a huge year for inflows with retail investors pumping in a whopping Rs87,000 crores into equity mutual funds till November this year. Modi effect, increasing optimism towards better returns from equities, or just opportunism after the market peaked in March, retail investors have flocked to the markets. Domestic equity mutual funds have – for the first time – invested much more than the foreign institutional investor (FII). However, this record investment didn’t move the Sensex much and sentiment remains low. Thus, the big question is will these inflows be repeated next year?
Tamasha Award for drama:
Indian start-ups: From Rahul Yadav of housing.com getting fired to Tiny Owl employees taking the company founder hostage, from eye-popping valuations to record-breaking Diwali sales – 2015 was yet another year of news headlines for Indian start-ups. Making news almost every day, Indian startups remain at the center of media attention, even amusement. Calls for bubble and trouble abound but the juggernaut rolls on. However, 2015 has been the year of lay-offs and, if gossip is to be believed, some doubts on valuations have finally surfaced. And yet, the potential for business remains large and start-ups will remain in focus in 2016 too. The bigger question is – how many of those startups alive in 2015 will be left standing this time in 2016?
Anupam Gupta is a Chartered Accountant and has worked in Institutional Equity Research since 2000, first as an analyst and now as a consultant.
He contributes to the Business Standard platform, Punditry, through his blog, Beyond Markets on markets & the economic horizons.
He tweets as @b50
