Biju Patnaik Is Not Around, And The Congress Is Sitting Pretty

A fragmented opposition, multi-cornered contests and rumblings of discord in the alliance between the newly-formed Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party have given the Congress a distinct advantage in Orissa, one of the rare states where the Congress enjoys an edge over others.

If the situation does not change drastically before polling (in two phases, on February 22 and 28), the Congress is all set to repeat its performance of the 1996 Lok Sabha election when it bagged 16 of the 21 seats in the state.

Orissa has been a traditional Congress bastion, except for brief periods when anti-Congress waves swept the country, as in 1977 and 1989. No such sentiments prevails now. The BJP, widely considered to be ahead in the race for power in New Delhi, has a limited influence in the state although it is in the process of graduating to a major force.

 

Another factor to the Congress advantage is the split in state unit of the Janata Dal, and the absense of a towering personality like Biju Patnaik, who was the chief tormentor of the Congress in the state for last two decades.

Though the BJD has forged an alliance with the BJP, the objective of such a pact-to unify the opposition vote-stands defeated due to the presence of several other non-Congress parties in the fray.

The Janata Dal, even though considerably weakened by the split, is making a bid to take on both the Congress and the BJP-BJD alliance in all the 21 seats in association with the Left parties. The Janata Dal has put up candidates in 16 seats and left two seats each to the CPI, CPM, and one seat to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (Soren).

The Janata Dal has a point to make against the BJD, which was formed by former partymen. Our prospects might be bleak, but our main objective is to ensure the defeat of BJD candidates even though eventually it would go in the Congress favour, a senior Janata Dal leader says.

On paper, the BJP-BJD alliance appears a threat to the Congress, but with strains apppearing over seat sharing, and the prospects of multi-cornered contests becoming a reality, the threat has receded.

The BJD has another problem: popularising its newly acquired symbol, the conch. Besides, despite the facade of camaraderie among the BJP and BJD leaders, their workers are yet to reconcile to contesting the elections as allies due to their long standing acrimony towards each other.

The strains notwithstanding, the BJP on its own appears set to get a couple of seats from the state for the first time.

The partys share in the alliance is eight seats, mostly confined to the western parts of the state, where its appeal has spread rapidly. The party stands a good chance in Bolangir, Deogarh, Sudergarh and Keonjhar.

Similarly, the BJD, which is contesting 13 seats mostly in coastal Orissa, is particularly hopeful of Aska-where party president Naveen Patnaik is seeking re-election-Bhadrakh and Kendrapara, where Pravat Samantray, a Rajya Sabha MP, is pitted against Union parliamentary affairs minister Srikant Jena. Initially reluctant to seek re-election from Kendrapara fearing the ire of the voters, Jena has returned to the seat after the search for a safer seat proved futile.

In contrast to the turmoil in the opposition camp, the Congress is in a comfortable position in at least a dozen seats including Berhampur, where Chief Minister J B Patnaiks wife, Jayanti Patnaik, is the party candidate, replacing former Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao. The party is particularly upbeat following encouraging response to Sonia Gandhis recent rally in Bhubaneswar.

The Gandhi name has always worked wonders for the party in the tribal-dominated southern and western parts of Orissa, and the party now hopes to spread the spell to newer areas.

The Congress is once again expected to do well in the tribal-dominated and backward regions of southern and western Orissa, where the party won nine of the 10 seats in 1996.

Even in the worst of times-as in 1977 and 1989-the party had done reasonably well from this area. Seats like Berhampur, Nawarangpur and Koraput, from where former Union minister Giridhar Gomango is seeking re-election, have been with the Congress for over three deacades and there is little to suggest any threat now.

The Congress is also bolstered by the induction of former Union railway minister Bhakta Charan Das in Kalahandi which he won in 1996 on a Samajwadi Janata Party ticket.

However, in the other western Orissa seats of Bolangir, Deogarh, Sundergarh and Keonjhar, Congress faces a stiff challenge from the BJP because of saffron brigades phenomenal growth in the last few years.

Of the BJPs 10 MLAs in the state assembly, five hail from the western districts.

The parety is now tipped to open its account in the state by winning at least a couple of seats from here, probably Bolangir and Deogarh.

Though coastal Orissa comprising Cuttack, Bhubaneswar, Puri, Balasore, Kendrapara have traditionally been with the Janata Dal in the state, the recent split in Dal and the strains within the BJP-BJD alliance have benefited the Congress.

The discontent between the BJP and the BJD over seat adjustments came into the open on the very day they were announced.

BJD vice-president A U Singhdeo and BJP vice-president Prasant Nanda resigned their posts, but have since been pacified by their party leaders.