The Congress, which is gung ho over the mass appeal of Sonia Gandhi and her children, has finalised an extensive campaign tour of Uttar Pradesh for her.
The tour is being aimed to neutralise the Mandal and Hindutva factor in the state, on the strength of which other parties have been weaning away the Congress support base.
Sonia Gandhis tour will cover the entire state, from the Uttarakhand region to eastern, western and central UP. She would address a rally in Varanasi on February 6.
If it works out well, as her campaign managers predict, it may well turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The already divided secular votes in the state will be further divided as Congress eats into the share of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
The swing in Congress favour might restore some lost ground, but it is unlikely to be enough to result in significant gains.
In the 1996 elections, Congress nominees had lost their deposits in 75 per cent of the constituencies in the state. Even a dramatic improvement of votes on these seats, therefore, would not be good enough for victory.
Party leaders do not appear to be worried about this. We lost in UP only after the Mandal factor came into play. This lead to the Hindutva wave and the Congress was marginalised, a party functionary said.
The party wants to ride on the Sonia wave and try and regain some lost ground. He said Sonia Gandhis campaign would make a dent in the votes of all parties including the BJP (upper caste votes), the SP (Muslim votes) and the BSP (the SC\ST votes). This is, however, contradicted by a section in the party, which fears that her campaign would only harm the forces of social justice and not the BJP.
SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has firmed up an alliance with the Congress in Maharashtra, has already built up his defences. Singh has started attacking the Congress, along with the BJP, for its election time apology on the demolition of the Babri Masjid. Yadav has blamed the then Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress government for having allowed shilanyas in the disputed structure. By doing so he is making all efforts to keep the minorities votes, an important vote bank for him, intact.
Interestingly, a senior Congress leader, who is playing a very significant role in the post-Sonia Congress, claimed at the AICC Iftar party last week that Sonia Gandhi would be able to swing 75 per cent of Muslim votes in the Congress favour. He said one only need to wait for her campaign in the state.
Sonia Gandhis campaign in UP is being also keenly awaited by BJP, the largest party in the state with 54 of the 85 seats.
The Congress has lost power at the Centre primarily because of its wipe out in UP, which has been home to three generations of Gandhis and therefore a forte of the Congress.
