Odds And Evens

Sabermetrics amalgamates statistics, probability theory and macro economic modelling concepts to predict sporting results. Sabermetricians are the actuaries of professional sport, the men who make the odds. Its a mindbogglingly complex art and a good sabermetrician is worth the hire in most corners of the world. But, betting on anything except horse racing, (that too only on turf club premises), is illegal in India.

Not that proscription ever stop-ped men of sporting blood from pawning their grandmas jewels to lay money on trivia as diverse as the number of runs scored off the next ball in a one-day cricket match, the total number of break points in a tennis match, the number of yellow cards handed out in a Mohun Bagan-East Bengal derby, the number of track and field records broken in the next Olympics. But theres nothing official about it.

 

As a registered Calcutta bookie who enumerated the above range of bets sadly told the author, If the government licensed betting on sports (and politics), the capital gains tax revenue would wipe out the fiscal deficit. You wouldnt believe the things people want to bet on. Current estimates of money changing hands per one-day cricket match vary from between Rs50-500 crore. All of this lands in the black economy, a substantial portion of it in hawala accounts where it adds to the bank balance of Dawoodbhai and his ilk who dont care too much about legal niceties.

Illegal bookmakers might as well be hung for a sheep as for a lamb, so they also have no compunction in bribing players to manipulate results. One nasty little statistic out of 10 cricket testplaying nations, only India and Pakistan dont allow legal betting on cricket. Is it entirely coincidental that fixing allegations always centre around Pakistani and Indian players?

There was indeed a major furore in 1985, when Lillee and Marsh made a packet betting on England winning after following on. But they did it legally and neither of them was sacked. It was acce-pted that the Botham-Dilley-Willis combine that turned the match were unaided by Marsh fumbling or Lillee bowling donkey-drops.

An honest bookie has a lot to lose if he s caught fixing a match; his licence goes and punters simply turn to his business rivals. Please note that horse racing where betting is licensed features far fewer fixing allegations than cricket or soccer. A criminal who is possibly already liable under Fera, Cofeposa and Tada scarcely cares whether he is liable for match fixing.

And besides, honest mathematicians and sports fanatics who correctly predict the result of an event are denied the fruits of their labour. One final irony that arises from this: no Indian supporter could legally make money off the Olympic gold at Moscow, the World Cup victories at Kuala Lumpur and London, or the Davis Cup win versus France at Lyon. Percipient West Indians, Spaniards and Frenchmen who backed their heads rather than their hearts could cry their way to the bank.