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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has learnt how to predict cyclones but when it comes to the monsoon, it struggles (Chart 1). This year, it has announced India might be facing a drought, leading Harsh Vardhan, Union minister for earth sciences, to stick his neck out and claim this was linked to global warming.
Is it? Data from two centuries (Chart 2) show the number of droughts has increased. In the 19th century, there were 18 drought years and during the 20th century, these increased to 22. However, the 20th century saw the intensity of drought deepening.
