Aditi Nayar

Inflation-fisc trade-off is likely to keep bond yields high for now

The upswing in the yield curve largely reflects worsening expectations around fiscal and inflation outcomes, an unfortunate fallout of the West Asia crisis for India's macros.

Mild fuel price hike may not significantly upend household budget

We estimate the direct impact of this hike at around 8bps uptick each in the CPI inflation prints for May 2026 and June 2026, along with a mild indirect impact to the tune of around 10 bps, Nayar said

Prolonged West Asia shock raises stagflation risks for India's economy

The most visible difference will be on the balance of payments front

RBI Policy: A prolonged pause on rates may already be underway

The POC stressed that excluding precious metals, underlying inflation pressures were muted and that barring volatility on account of gold and silver, core inflation was expected to remain range-bound

Budget 2026: Onus of executing incremental capex shifting towards states

Aditi Nayar analyses the Budget's fiscal prudence, higher public capex via states, a 4.3 per cent deficit target, debt consolidation, and the impact of higher gross borrowings on bond yields

Economic Survey 2025-26: A year of adjustment - on several fronts

Economic Survey 2025-26 signals an adjustment phase ahead, with moderate growth, stable inflation, fiscal consolidation and policy shifts shaping India's macro outlook

Budget should push capital expenditure materially: Aditi Nayar, ICRA

The GoI had already provided relief on the personal income tax front in the Union Budget for FY2026, with the revenue foregone on account of this pegged at ₹1.0 trillion

8% GDP growth in Q2 may evince pause in RBI's MPC December review

Interestingly, the US Federal Reserve's December 2025 meeting is a few days after the MPC's last scheduled review for 2025, in which it may cut rates further.

PLI incentive schemes: achieving ambitions, but timelines and progress vary

ICRA estimates that around Rs. 2.5 trillion capex will be incurred by March 2026, which is 60-65 per cent of the total estimated capex

Revenue deficit, capital spends: Key takeaways from 15th finance commission

The 15th FC had recommended a sizeable Rs. 2.9 trillion as revenue deficit grants (RDG) to a select number of states for FY2022-FY2026

Evolving growth-inflation dynamics unlikely to permit further rate cuts

Economic hit due to US tariff decisions likely to be accentuated

RBI Policy: Full of surprises, dovish on growth, neutral on further cuts

With inflation expected to rise back to above 4 per cent by Q4-FY26, the Monetary Policy Committee has capitalised upon the available headroom to frontload rate action

RBI's growth outlook is optimistic amid global concerns; see 50bps more cut

We expect the GDP growth to print at 6.2 per cent in FY26, marginally below the 6.3 per cent projected by us for FY25, said Aditi Nayar of Icra

Rate cut as expected; FY26 growth forecast slightly optimistic: Aditi Nayar

Looking ahead, we believe that the growth-inflation outlook suggests that there is room for another 25 bps rate cut in either the April or the June 2025 meetings

RBI Policy Preview: MPC's decision on interest rates hangs by a fine thread

RBI Monetary Policy: With the Union Budget for FY-2026 behind us, the focus now shifts to the next big event on the horizon - the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) final meeting for FY-2025 on Feb 7

Union Budget 2025-26: Fiscal deficit broadly in line with expectations

Revenue spending growth of 6.7 per cent is somewhat higher than our forecast

Economic Survey 2025 suggests deregulation as a trigger for higher growth

We broadly concur with the Survey's assessment of a pick-up in rural demand on the back of improved crop output, disinflation, and an uptick in domestic investment activity

GDP growth likely bottomed out; inflation to prevent December RBI rate cut

The CPI inflation for Q3 FY2025 is expected to overshoot the MPC's estimate of 4.8 per cent for the quarter by at least 60-70 bps

Budget 2024: Fiscal marksmanship on display; over to implementation

On the personal income tax front, the Budget brought in some modest tweaks, which should support sentiment and consumption for salaried individuals

Tax overhaul, populism: ICRA on proposals that Modi 3.0 Budget must avoid

The Union Budget for fiscal 2024-25 (FY25) will be presented on July 23, 2024