'India is an oasis of macro stability in a turbulent world': CEA Nageswaran

India remains economically stable despite global uncertainty, with strong growth, low inflation and rising forex reserves, CEA Anantha Nageswaran said after the Economic Survey was tabled

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said India stands out as a rare "oasis of macro stability” at a time when the global economy is facing uncertainty, conflict and slowing growth.

 

Speaking after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey in the Lok Sabha, Nageswaran said India’s growth performance, stable inflation and strong external position underline its resilience in a fractured global environment.

 

“India is indeed an oasis of macro stability in an otherwise turbulent world. Numbers speak for themselves,” the CEA said. He added that India’s growth figures for the current year and the medium term “stand out in comparison to any other part of the world”.

 

 

Survey outlines growth priorities for next 25 years

 

Nageswaran said that the Economic Survey lays out a clear roadmap for India’s economic priorities over the next 25 years, with a strong focus on manufacturing and exports.

 

“The Economic Survey cover symbolises the key message that we have on the importance of manufacturing and exports for India’s future growth in a very fragmented world and a fractious global environment,” he said.

 

According to the CEA, the Survey reviews India’s current economic performance while also addressing how the country plans to pursue long-term growth goals amid global unpredictability. “The global context is somewhat unpredictable and even dangerous,” he said, adding that the Survey discusses how India must prepare as a country and as a society.   

 

High growth with low inflation

 

The CEA highlighted that India is managing strong growth alongside a relatively calm inflation environment.

 

“We are achieving high growth rates, consumption and investment spending amidst a very moderate inflation environment,” he said.

 

Average inflation for the first nine months of the current financial year is projected at around 1.7 per cent, largely due to a deflationary trend in food prices. He also pointed out that core inflation remains under control.

 

“If you take out gold and silver, core inflation is 2.9 per cent, well below the 4 per cent threshold pursued by the central bank,” Nageswaran said, adding that benign inflation trends are expected to continue into the next financial year.

 

Forex reserves, infrastructure show strong gains

 

India’s foreign exchange reserves have seen a sharp rise over the past decade, the CEA said.

 

“Forex reserves have more than doubled compared to 11 years ago, from $341 billion to $701 billion,” he said. While part of this increase is due to higher gold valuations, he noted that foreign currency inflows have also strengthened.

 

He also highlighted major infrastructure improvements. The length of operational high-speed highway corridors has expanded from 550 km to 5,360 km so far. Railway network commissioning has more than doubled from 1,500 km to over 3,100 km, while port capacity and cargo handling have also increased significantly.

 

Education, digital access improve

 

On education, Nageswaran said India has largely addressed the issue of enrollment and is now shifting focus to learning outcomes.

 

“Up to middle school level, enrollment is almost 100 per cent. Up to high school, it’s about 80 per cent, and up to secondary school, it’s about 60 per cent,” he said, adding that tertiary education enrollment stands at around 32 per cent, against a target of 50 per cent.

 

India has also seen a sharp drop in data costs. “Perhaps we are the cheapest in the world,” he said. However, he cautioned that low data costs are a “mixed blessing”, pointing to links between excessive screen time, social comparison, and mental health issues.

 

Trade realism, energy transition and growth outlook

 

Nageswaran said the global trade environment has changed fundamentally. “Trade is no longer reciprocal, markets are no longer neutral, and supply chains have become instruments of state power,” he said, arguing that “Swadeshi is a legitimate policy instrument” in such a world.

 

On energy, he reiterated India’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2070 and highlighted strong progress in solar and wind installations. However, he warned that the material and energy requirements of renewable expansion should not be underestimated.

 

Addressing concerns over the rupee, he said currency depreciation is not unique to India. “Countries with current account deficits have seen their currencies depreciate,” he noted, adding that the rupee has performed relatively well over the long term.

 

Citing strong economic performance and reforms, the CEA said the Economic Survey has upgraded India’s potential growth rate.

 

“Despite the geopolitical environment being what it is, this Economic Survey is confidently upgrading India’s potential growth to 7 per cent per annum,” he said, from 6.5 per cent estimated three years ago.