Silver to outperform gold? Emkay Wealth predicts 20% jump in one year

The firm's latest research highlights that the supply-demand gap in silver currently stands at nearly 20%, and the deficit is likely to persist in the foreseeable future.

The price of silver is expected to touch $60 per ounce in the next one year, a potential of 20 per cent year-on year from the current price level owing to growing industrial demand. The current supply deficit to demand is currently recorded at 20%, and is expected to be in deficit for the foreseeable future, said Emkay Wealth Management, the wealth management and advisory arm of Emkay Global Financial Services in its latest research.

 

With gold already shining and silver poised for a breakout, Emkay Wealth Management’s outlook suggests that precious metals may continue to outperform traditional assets in the near term. 

 

For investors looking to hedge against volatility and diversify portfolios, silver’s industrial edge and supply constraints could make it the metal to watch in 2026.

 

Gold returns have been on par with equities and above bonds since the end of the gold standard. In the year to date terms, till 8th October, gold has made a return of 61.82% whereas other asset classes such as Indian equities, bonds have registered a return of 4.2% (Nifty 500 TRI) and 8.4% (Crisil Short Term Bond Index) respectively. Prices of precious metals closely intertwined with US Dollar currency movements. The expected rate cuts in US may lead to some decline in the dollar, further providing support to price growth in gold.

 

"Increased preference for gold as against US Dollar by institutional investors and central banks at the heart of appreciation in precious metals. Demand-supply dynamics are favorable to bring upward mobility in silver prices and technically near a break out zone for all time prices," said Ashish Ranawade, Head of Products, Emkay Wealth Management. 

 

Emkay’s research also sheds light on the current valuation landscape in Indian equities. The Nifty 100 is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.8, while Nifty Midcap 150 stands at 33.6, Nifty Smallcap 250 at 30.43, and Nifty Microcap 250 at 28.88—indicating that markets remain on the expensive side relative to growth.

 

Despite stretched valuations, domestic investors continue to pour money into equities, suggesting confidence in India’s long-term growth story.

 

“Structurally, India is expected to be an outlier in the global economic landscape. A spate of IPOs has made India a much wider market than what the indices indicate. Stock-specific opportunities remain prevalent, and we expect PMS, AIF, and active fund managers to perform well,” said Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management.

 

According to Emkay Wealth, a high growth-large market, digital leadership, infra push, reform momentum, China+1 strategy, sectoral strengthens and most importantly geopolitical balanced strategic partnerships will further usher the growth story of India.

 

Emkay Wealth attributes India’s sustained growth outlook to multiple factors—robust domestic demand, digital leadership, infrastructure push, reform momentum, and geopolitical balance. 

According to the firm, these strengths, combined with the China+1 strategy and sectoral diversification, position India as one of the few large economies capable of delivering consistent 6–6.5% growth through 2026.

 

While global headwinds—such as tariff wars, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—continue to weigh on sentiment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates only a moderate 0.5 percentage point impact on global growth for 2025.

 

In contrast, India’s economy is projected to expand at 6.2–6.3%, supported by consumer spending, GST rationalization, and lower interest rates in the coming quarters.

 

Despite challenges in global trade and tariffs as steep as 50% on Indian exports to the US, India’s economy continues to show resilience. The Manufacturing and Services PMI touched a 15–17-year high in August 2025, indicating broad-based expansion across sectors.

 

A favorable monsoon, strong festive demand, and steady policy support further strengthen India’s macro outlook.