These biomarkers may predict organ failure, death in chronic kidney disease

A new study highlights biomarkers that may predict chronic kidney disease progression, opening new possibilities for targeted care and personalised medicine

If you or someone close to you is living with chronic kidney disease (CKD), doctors may soon have new ways to predict who is most likely to face kidney failure or early death.

 

Researchers in the UK have found that certain biomarkers can indicate whether CKD patients are at higher risk of kidney failure or death. These results, cited in the Journal of the American Society of Nephrology in the study 'Biomarkers of Kidney Failure and All-Cause Mortality in CKD', highlight the new possibilities of personalised treatment.

 

The study was led by researchers at the University of Surrey as part of the National Unified Renal Translational Research Enterprise (NURTuRE) CKD study and funded by Kidney Research UK. It analysed data from 2,884 adults with CKD across 16 UK nephrology centres.

 

What is chronic kidney disease and why is it dangerous?

According to Cleveland Clinic, an American nonprofit academic medical center, chronic kidney disease is a long-term condition where the kidneys slowly lose their ability to filter waste and excess fluids from the blood. It affects millions worldwide and often leads to serious complications like kidney failure, heart disease, and even early death.

 

Currently, doctors rely on age, sex, ethnicity, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) as key predictors of CKD progression. However, while effective, these markers do not always reveal the underlying disease activity or mechanisms. That’s where novel biomarkers come in. 

What did the study find?

The researchers studied 21 biomarkers linked to kidney damage, fibrosis, inflammation, and cardiovascular stress. Out of these, some combinations stood out as strong predictors:

 

For kidney failure: soluble TNF receptor 1 (sTNFR1), soluble CD40 (sCD40), and urinary collagen type 1 a1 chain (UCOL1A1).

For all-cause mortality: high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR).

 

These biomarkers reflect different disease mechanisms like inflammation, cardiovascular strain, and tissue damage, helping paint a fuller picture of CKD progression.

 

Dr Tony Onoja, lead author and research fellow at the University of Surrey, explained in a statement published on the university website, "Our research shows that these biomarker models offer predictive results comparable to established methods, but more importantly, they help us understand how the disease progresses. This could open the door to personalised treatments in the future."

 

Professor Nophar Geifman, senior author of the study, added, "Specific biomarkers can give a more nuanced understanding of a patient’s disease progression and mortality risk. Further research is needed to explore how these markers respond to treatments and how they can be integrated into clinical care."

How can these biomarkers change future CKD treatments?

According to the researchers, by identifying patients most at risk of kidney failure or early death, doctors may:

• Monitor disease progression more closely
• Develop personalised treatment strategies
• Test new targeted therapies that address inflammation, fibrosis, or cardiovascular stress

Although more clinical validation is needed, these findings point towards a future where CKD management is far more personalised than it is today.

 

The study highlights that while standard tests like eGFR and UACR remain essential, new biomarkers may give scientists a deeper look into the hidden processes behind CKD. This could eventually mean better treatment and improved outcomes for patients worldwide. 

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This content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice.