Lancet study warns of sharp rise in breast cancer cases in India, worldwide

The latest global analysis shows breast cancer cases rising fastest in lower-income nations, while India records a dramatic increase in both incidence and mortality

Breast cancer continues to loom large as a leading health challenge for women across the world and especially in India. New breast cancer cases in women are predicted to rise by a third globally, from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million in 2050. This sharp increase signals a growing public health emergency that countries can no longer ignore.

 

A new systematic analysis titled “Global, regional, and national burden of breast cancer among females, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study”, published in The Lancet Oncology, presents a stark picture of escalating diagnoses and deaths. The findings show that while breast cancer is already the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women, its burden is shifting rapidly towards nations with fewer resources.

 

 

Global scenario: Cases and deaths set to rise

 

Breast cancer remains the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women worldwide, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases in 2023 and around 764,000 deaths, according to the study. Other findings include -

 

• New breast cancer cases could rise by more than a third, reaching over 3.5 million annually by 2050, with deaths possibly rising to 1.4 million a year
• Although high-income countries still report the highest incidence rates, the fastest growth in new cases and deaths is occurring in low- and lower-middle-income countries, where health systems often have fewer resources
• While older women traditionally had higher diagnosis rates, cases in women aged 20–54 years have risen about 29 per cent since 1990, suggesting changing patterns of risk factors and earlier onset in younger populations

 

Experts highlight that lifestyle factors significantly influence breast cancer risk. In 2023, nearly 28 per cent of healthy years lost to breast cancer were linked to modifiable causes, such as high red meat intake, tobacco use, elevated blood sugar, obesity, alcohol consumption, and low physical activity.

 

“While those in high-income countries typically benefit from screening and more timely diagnosis and comprehensive treatment strategies, the mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage diagnosis, more limited access to quality care, and higher death rates that are threatening to eclipse progress in women’s health,” shared lead author Kayleigh Bhangdia from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA.

 

India’s alarming growth: Five-fold increase since 1990

 

• In 2023, India recorded nearly 203,000 new breast cancer cases, a 477.8 per cent rise compared with 1990
• During the same period, breast cancer deaths rose by 352.3 per cent, reaching 102,000
• After adjusting for population growth and ageing, the age-standardised incidence rate rose by 126.9 per cent since 1990 and the death rate increased by 74 per cent

 

According to National Cancer Registry Programme data tabled in the Parliament last month, annual cases jumped from 213,000 in 2021 to 240,000 by 2025. Even more sobering is the rising toll of the disease, with yearly deaths now crossing the 100,000-mark, a significant climb from the 91,704 recorded just four years prior.

 

These trends mirror global forecasts, with cases expected to continue climbing sharply over the next two decades. Experts warn that without enhanced early detection and expanded access to affordable treatment, the burden will strain India’s healthcare system even further.

 

What is behind this growth?

 

• Urbanisation, sedentary behaviour, poor diet, increasing obesity and later age at first childbirth are often cited as drivers of growing breast cancer risk in India
• Many women face delayed diagnosis and treatment due to limited screening infrastructure, lack of awareness and resource disparities between regions
• Similar to global patterns, Indian clinics are seeing more cases among younger women, pointing to changing exposures to risk factors earlier in life

 

"With more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden linked to six modifiable lifestyle changes, there are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation,” said co-author Dr Marie Ng, Affiliate Associate Professor at IHME and Associate Professor at National University of Singapore.  

 

Way forward: Prevention, screening and access to care

 

The study and global health experts stress that tackling breast cancer demands an integrated approach. This includes:

 

• Promoting healthy lifestyles: Encouraging exercise, balanced diets and reduced tobacco and alcohol use
• Strengthening early detection: Investing in screening programmes so cancers are caught at a treatable stage
• Improving access to treatment: Ensuring that all women, regardless of income or geography, can access timely and effective care

 

“Targeting known risk factors through public health policies and making healthier choices more accessible, while working with individuals to take action to reduce obesity and high blood sugar, is crucial to halting the rise in breast cancers worldwide,” said Dr Marie.     

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This report is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice.