Ukraine to Iran: How modern war is altering the math of defence production

Modern conflicts are shifting arms production from exclusive high-end weapons to scalable, affordable systems that are built for sustained warfare

As the United States and Israel mounted coordinated strikes on Iranian targets beginning last week and Tehran responded with counterattacks across the Gulf region, the nature of the conflict and the weapons deployed may be signalling a shift in how militaries build and produce equipment.

 

In the recent campaign against Tehran, American forces deployed a mix of high-end and low-cost systems, including stealth fighters to expendable drones. These operations exposed persistent shortfalls in traditional defence manufacturing and highlighted new priorities in wartime production.

 

What weapons are defining the Israel–US–Iran conflict?

 

In the strikes on Iran beginning February 28, the US and Israel used an array of advanced weaponry.

 

 

Stealth fighters such as the F-35 and long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles were reportedly central to the campaign, reflecting the decades-old “shock and awe” doctrine. A single Tomahawk costs about $2 million, while an F-35 exceeds $82 million and a top-tier F-22 can cost up to $300 million. If missile interceptors such as THAAD (at roughly $13 million each) are factored in, the combined expenditure for high-end systems in such campaigns quickly runs into billions of dollars.

 

Alongside these expensive platforms, however, the US for the first time deployed low-cost one-way attack drones: the Low-cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS), modelled on the Iranian Shahed-136 and priced at about $35,000 each. These drones, designed for mass production and saturation tactics, were used alongside Tomahawks and manned jets in the Middle East strikes.

 

Cheap drones are becoming central to military production

 

The decision to field low-cost drones marks a strategic shift from conventional procurement strategies that prioritised a small number of highly capable but costly systems. That shift began taking clearer shape during the prolonged Russia–Ukraine war.

 

Drones such as the Shahed and first-person-view variants have reshaped fighting in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces reportedly face hundreds of unmanned systems daily. Massive numbers of low-cost drones have forced changes in tactics, from how armour moves to how air defences are prioritised, with direct implications for manufacturing.

 

Ukraine has also begun manufacturing drones at scale. It launched a military production plant in Britain earlier this year to ensure continuity away from conflict zones, and its defence sector has expanded into a multibillion-dollar industrial base, meeting over half the nation’s production needs during the war.

 

These developments reflect a broader trend: mass-produced, lower-cost systems are no longer niche technologies but essential battlefield tools.

 

How lessons from Ukraine and Operation Sindoor affect manufacturing

 

The conflict in Ukraine has driven militaries and defence firms to rethink production priorities. Thousands of inexpensive drones — some costing only hundreds of dollars — have dominated the skies, prompting a recalibration of strategies that once centred on expensive missiles and aircraft.

 

Meanwhile, India’s Operation Sindoor last year, which was a precision strike campaign that relied on missiles and aerial platforms without a ground invasion, highlighted the value of precision engagement over large troop deployments. That model, emphasising accuracy and limited engagements, places pressure on defence industries to deliver guided munitions and advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems at scale, without lockstep dependence on heavy formations.

 

Is defence manufacturing adapting to prolonged wars?

 

Amid a rise in conflicts, there are signs that industry and policymakers are responding. The US has created specialised units such as Task Force Scorpion Strike, focused on developing and fielding affordable autonomous systems. Procurement reforms, including executive actions aimed at streamlining defence exports and manufacturing rules, have also been pursued to support wider production ecosystems.

 

In Europe, concerns over reliance on imported systems have renewed interest in boosting domestic production capacities for advanced weapons and drones. Ukraine’s move to build production facilities abroad signals a new model of distributed defence manufacturing, shaped by conflict realities rather than traditional peacetime rhythms.

 

What next for battlefields

 

Ongoing conflicts point to three key shifts in military manufacturing:

 

- Cheap, mass-producible drones and loitering munitions are becoming central to inventories, operating alongside expensive jets and missiles.

 

- Production facilities in allied countries may become more common to hedge against attacks on domestic infrastructure.

 

- Procurement reforms aim to speed acquisition cycles and enable rapid production of systems that can be fielded in large numbers.

 

Modern warfare is reshaping the industrial logic of defence. Military manufacturing is no longer solely about producing a handful of multimillion-dollar platforms. It now increasingly includes scalable unmanned systems, modular designs and cost-efficient munitions built for sustained conflict.